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War President

Author

Listed:
  • Richard C. Eichenberg

    (Department of Political Science, Tufts University)

  • Richard J. Stoll

    (Department of Political Science, Rice University)

  • Matthew Lebo

    (Department of Political Science, Stony Brook University)

Abstract

The authors estimate a model of the job approval ratings of President George W. Bush that includes five sets of variables: a “honeymoon†effect, an autoregressive function that tracks a decline in approval, measures of economic performance, measures of important “rally events,†and a measure of the costs of war—in this case, the U.S. death toll in the Iraq War. Several significant effects are found, including the rally that followed the attacks of September 11, 2001; the commencement of the war in Iraq; and the capture of Baghdad in April 2003. Since the beginning of the war in Iraq, however, the casualties of war have had a significant negative impact on Bush’s approval ratings. Although the effects of additional battle deaths in Iraq will decrease approval only marginally, results suggest that there is also little prospect for sustained improvement so long as casualties continue to accumulate.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard C. Eichenberg & Richard J. Stoll & Matthew Lebo, 2006. "War President," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(6), pages 783-808, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:50:y:2006:i:6:p:783-808
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002706293671
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Kernell, Samuel, 1978. "Explaining Presidential Popularity: How Ad Hoc Theorizing, Misplaced Emphasis, and Insufficient Care in Measuring One's Variables Refuted Common Sense and Led Conventional Wisdom Down the Path of Anom," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 506-522, June.
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