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Diplomacy and Other Forms of Intervention in Civil Wars

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick M. Regan

    (Department of Political Science Binghamton University, New York)

  • Aysegul Aydin

    (Department of Political Science Binghamton University, New York)

Abstract

Much of the empirical literature suggests that outside interventions tend to lengthen the expected duration of civil wars; conversely, the policy community often acts as if it holds the opposite expectation for the outcome of intervention. The authors argue that the divergence can be found in how models of intervention are specified in the literature. They propose a model with two novel contributions. First, they incorporate mediations as the key to resolving the strategic problems that the civil war parties face. Second, they account for the decaying effect of interventions over time. Their results suggest that diplomacy is critical for understanding the duration of civil conflicts. They find that mediation has a dramatic effect on the expected duration of a civil war and that when controlling for diplomatic efforts, economic interventions can also reduce the expected duration.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick M. Regan & Aysegul Aydin, 2006. "Diplomacy and Other Forms of Intervention in Civil Wars," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(5), pages 736-756, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:50:y:2006:i:5:p:736-756
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002706291579
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler & Måns Söderbom, 2004. "On the Duration of Civil War," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 41(3), pages 253-273, May.
    2. James C. Murdoch & Todd Sandler, 2002. "Economic Growth, Civil Wars, and Spatial Spillovers," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(1), pages 91-110, February.
    3. Fearon, James D. & Laitin, David D., 2003. "Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 97(1), pages 75-90, February.
    4. Andrew Kydd, 2003. "Which Side Are You On? Bias, Credibility, and Mediation," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(4), pages 597-611, October.
    5. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Sambanis, Nicholas, 2000. "External interventions and the duration of civil wars," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2433, The World Bank.
    6. Dixon, William J., 1996. "Third-party techniques for preventing conflict escalation and promoting peaceful settlement," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 653-681, October.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Anderton,Charles H. & Carter,John R., 2009. "Principles of Conflict Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521875578, December.
    3. Dominic Rohner, 2018. "Success Factors for Peace Treaties: A Review of Theory and Evidence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 18.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    4. Mroß, Karina, 2015. "The fragile road towards peace and democracy: insights on the effectiveness of international support to post-conflict Burundi," IDOS Discussion Papers 3/2015, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    5. David Carment & Martin Fischer, 2011. "Three’s Company? Towards an Understanding of Third-Party Intervention Effectiveness," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 22, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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