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The North American Trade of U.S. States: A Comparative Analysis of Industrial Shipments, 1983-91

Author

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  • David J. Hayward

    (Department of Geography, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand)

  • Rodney A. Erickson

    (Department of Geography and Smeal College of Business Administration, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802)

Abstract

The potential impacts of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is a topic of considerable interest in the United States, particularly with respect to trade with Mexico. Unfortunately, there has been a paucity of information concerning the historical patterns of states' trade with Canada and Mexico. Such knowledge can serve as a baseline from which to assess change as well as provide a useful input to subsequent analyses of economic impacts. Using industrial production and export trade data from U.S. states to Canada and Mexico along with imports data, measures of trade and production exposure reveal significant geographical and sectoral differences. An extended version of shift-share analysis that specifically incorporates states' exports to and imports from Canada and Mexico isolates the contributions of these trade flows to components of state industrial change over the 1983-91 period. The impact of NAFTA-area trade is found to vary significantly across states, although the trade flows are often smaller than commonly assumed, suggesting that the trade impacts of NAFTA may often be overestimated.

Suggested Citation

  • David J. Hayward & Rodney A. Erickson, 1995. "The North American Trade of U.S. States: A Comparative Analysis of Industrial Shipments, 1983-91," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 18(1), pages 1-31, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:inrsre:v:18:y:1995:i:1:p:1-31
    DOI: 10.1177/016001769501800101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fernand Martin, 1991. "Measuring the Impact of Free Trade: Local Analysis versus Regional and National Models," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, April.
    2. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott, 1992. "North American Free Trade: Issues and Recommendations," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 71, January.
    3. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott, 1993. "NAFTA: An Assessment, Revised Edition," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 70, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Geoffrey J. D. Hewings & Philip R. Israilevich & Graham Schindler, 1998. "The export-occupation interface: the Chicago experience," Assessing the Midwest Economy GL-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Piezas-Jerbi, Ninez & Nee, Coleman, 2009. "Market shares in the post-Uruguay round era: A closer look using shift-share analysis," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2009-14, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.

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