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Testing the Recession Theory as an Explanation for the Migration Turnaround

Author

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  • T Kontuly

    (Department of Geography, University of Utah, 270 H OSH, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA)

  • H J Bierens

    (Department of Economics and Econometrics, Free University, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

Abstract

In this paper the so-called recession theory explanation for the decline of net migration to large metropolitan core areas of industrialized countries is tested with an econometric time-series model. In the explanation it is contended that the migration turnaround represents only a temporary fluctuation in the general trend of urban economic and demographic spatial concentration, caused by the business cycle downturns of the 1970s. Our results show that the migration turnaround cannot be attributed exclusively to these business cycle fluctuations. For many of the countries tested, the business cycle operated simultaneously with other factors suggested as explanations for the turnaround. We conclude that several explanations should be combined to build a theory of the migration turnaround.

Suggested Citation

  • T Kontuly & H J Bierens, 1990. "Testing the Recession Theory as an Explanation for the Migration Turnaround," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 22(2), pages 253-270, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:22:y:1990:i:2:p:253-270
    DOI: 10.1068/a220253
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bierens, Herman J., 1984. "Model specification testing of time series regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 323-353, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Henrie & David Plane, 2008. "Exodus from the California Core: Using Demographic Effectiveness and Migration Impact Measures to Examine Population Redistribution Within the Western United States," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 27(1), pages 43-64, February.
    2. Paul Gans, 2000. "Urban Population Change in Large Cities in Germany, 1980-94," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 37(9), pages 1497-1512, August.

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