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Towards an Integrated Spot LNG Market: An Interim Assessment

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  • Xiaoyi Mu
  • Haichun Ye

Abstract

This paper examines whether, and to what extent, the spot LNG markets in different regions (East Asia, Iberia, Northwest Europe, and South America) are integrated and how market integration evolves over time. We first lay out a framework of market integration in the context of global LNG market where the main supplier (e.g. Qatar) may have market power. Estimating a time-varying coefficients model, we find that a varying degree of market integration exists between all four LNG indices particularly after the Fukushima incident in 2011. We complement the time-varying coefficient analysis with a test of price convergence among the LNG indices using the Phillips-Sul (2007) methodology. The results reveal that, there is strong evidence that the spot LNG prices are converging after the Fukushima accident and they are also converging with the price of NBP in the UK. The empirical result is consistent with the change of market power of the main supplier.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoyi Mu & Haichun Ye, 2018. "Towards an Integrated Spot LNG Market: An Interim Assessment," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(1), pages 211-234, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:39:y:2018:i:1:p:211-234
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.1.xmu
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Cuddington & Zhongmin Wang, 2006. "Assessing the Degree of Spot Market Integration for U.S. Natural Gas: Evidence from Daily Price Data," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 195-210, March.
    2. Frank Asche & Petter Osmundsen & Maria Sandsmark, 2006. "The UK Market for Natural Gas, Oil and Electricity: Are the Prices Decoupled?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 27-40.
    3. Spiller, Pablo T & Huang, Cliff J, 1986. "On the Extent of the Market: Wholesale Gasoline in the Northeastern United States," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 131-145, December.
    4. Robert A. Ritz, 2013. "Price discrimination and limits to arbitrage in global LNG markets," Working Papers EPRG 1317, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    5. Anne Neumann, 2009. "Linking Natural Gas Markets - Is LNG Doing its Job?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(1_suppl), pages 187-200, June.
    6. Stephen P. A. Brown and Mine K. Yucel, 2009. "Market Arbitrage: European and North American Natural Gas Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 167-186.
    7. Marlin King & Milan Cuc, 1996. "Price Convergence in North American Natural Gas Spot Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 17-42.
    8. Slade, Margaret E, 1986. "Exogeneity Tests of Market Boundaries Applied to Petroleum Products," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 291-303, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michał Rubaszek & Karol Szafranek, 2025. "The European energy crisis and the US natural gas market dynamics: a structural VAR investigation," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-22, February.

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