IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v19y1998i4p85-105.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Relationship Between Energy Intensity and Income Levels: Forecasting Long Term Energy Demand in Asian Emerging Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Rossana Galli

Abstract

This paper analyses long-term trends in energy intensity for ten Asian emerging countries to test for a non-monotonic relationship between energy intensity and income in our sample. We estimate energy demand functions during 1973 1990 using a quadratic function of log income. We find that the long-run coefficient on squared income is negative and significant, indicating a change in trend of energy intensity. We then use our estimates to evaluate a medium-term forecast of energy demand in the Asian countries, using both a log-linear and a quadratic model. We find that in medium to high income countries the quadratic model performs better than the log-linear, with an average error of 9% against 43% in 1995. For the region as a whole, the quadratic model appears more adequate with a forecast error of 16% against 28% in 1995. These results are consistent with a process of dematerialization, which occurs as a result of a reduction of resource use per unit of GDP once an economy passes some threshold level of GDP per capita.

Suggested Citation

  • Rossana Galli, 1998. "The Relationship Between Energy Intensity and Income Levels: Forecasting Long Term Energy Demand in Asian Emerging Countries," The Energy Journal, , vol. 19(4), pages 85-105, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:19:y:1998:i:4:p:85-105
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol19-No4-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol19-No4-4
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol19-No4-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Farla, Jacco & Cuelenaere11, Rob & Blok, Kornelis, 1998. "Energy efficiency and structural change in the Netherlands, 1980-1990," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-28, February.
    2. B. W. Ang & Ki-Hong Choi, 1997. "Decomposition of Aggregate Energy and Gas Emission Intensities for Industry: A Refined Divisia Index Method," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 59-73.
    3. G. Boyd & J. F. McDonald & M. Ross & D. A. Hansont, 1987. "Separating the Changing Composition of U.S. Manufacturing Production from Energy Efficiency Improvements: A Divisia Index Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 77-96.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ang, B. W., 2004. "Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:: which is the preferred method?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1131-1139, June.
    2. Ang, B.W. & Zhang, F.Q., 2000. "A survey of index decomposition analysis in energy and environmental studies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 1149-1176.
    3. Jena, Pradyot, 2009. "A study of changing patterns of energy consumption and energy efficiency in the Indian manufacturing sector," MPRA Paper 31195, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Pillai N., Vijayamohanan, 2019. "Measuring Energy Efficiency: An Application of Data Envelopment Analysis to Power Sector in Kerala," MPRA Paper 101945, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Md. Afzal Hossain & Jean Engo & Songsheng Chen, 2021. "The main factors behind Cameroon’s CO2 emissions before, during and after the economic crisis of the 1980s," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 4500-4520, March.
    6. Fernández González, P. & Landajo, M. & Presno, M.J., 2014. "Tracking European Union CO2 emissions through LMDI (logarithmic-mean Divisia index) decomposition. The activity revaluation approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 741-750.
    7. Michael P. Weinold & Sergey Kolesnikov & Laura Díaz Anadón, 2025. "Rapid technological progress in white light-emitting diodes and its source in innovation and technology spillovers," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 10(5), pages 616-629, May.
    8. Liu, Na & Ang, B.W., 2007. "Factors shaping aggregate energy intensity trend for industry: Energy intensity versus product mix," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 609-635, July.
    9. Shahiduzzaman, Md. & Alam, Khorshed, 2013. "Changes in energy efficiency in Australia: A decomposition of aggregate energy intensity using logarithmic mean Divisia approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 341-351.
    10. Fernández González, P. & Presno, M.J. & Landajo, M., 2015. "Regional and sectoral attribution to percentage changes in the European Divisia carbonization index," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1437-1452.
    11. Wang, H. & Ang, B.W. & Su, Bin, 2017. "Assessing drivers of economy-wide energy use and emissions: IDA versus SDA," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 585-599.
    12. Madanmohan Ghosh & Deming Luo & Muhammad Shahid Siddiqui & Thomas Rutherford & Yunfa Zhu, 2020. "The Drivers of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Intensity Improvements in Major Economies: Analysis of Trends 1995–2009," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 55(3), pages 277-297, August.
    13. Fan, Jing-Li & Da, Ya-Bin & Wan, Si-Lai & Zhang, Mian & Cao, Zhe & Wang, Yu & Zhang, Xian, 2019. "Determinants of carbon emissions in ‘Belt and Road initiative’ countries: A production technology perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 268-279.
    14. Mariana Conte Grand, 2018. "Desacople y Descomposición del Consumo Final de Energía en Argentina," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 678, Universidad del CEMA.
    15. Rutger Hoekstra & Jeroen van den Bergh, 2002. "Structural Decomposition Analysis of Physical Flows in the Economy," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 23(3), pages 357-378, November.
    16. Pillai N., Vijayamohanan, 2019. "Measuring Energy Efficiency: An Application of Stochastic Frontier Production Function Analysis to Power Sector in Kerala," MPRA Paper 101944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Lars Wenzel & Andr Wolf, 2014. "Changing Patterns of Electricity Usage in European Manufacturing: A Decomposition Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 516-530.
    18. Gale A. Boyd & Joseph M. Roop, 2004. "A Note on the Fisher Ideal Index Decomposition for Structural Change in Energy Intensity," The Energy Journal, , vol. 25(1), pages 87-101, January.
    19. Pillai N., Vijayamohanan & AM, Narayanan, 2019. "Energy Efficiency: A Sectoral Analysis for Kerala," MPRA Paper 101424, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Ang, B.W. & Liu, F.L. & Chung, Hyun-Sik, 2004. "A generalized Fisher index approach to energy decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 757-763, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:19:y:1998:i:4:p:85-105. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.