IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v19y1998i4p85-105.html

The Relationship Between Energy Intensity and Income Levels: Forecasting Long Term Energy Demand in Asian Emerging Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Rossana Galli

Abstract

This paper analyses long-term trends in energy intensity for ten Asian emerging countries to test for a non-monotonic relationship between energy intensity and income in our sample. We estimate energy demand functions during 1973 1990 using a quadratic function of log income. We find that the long-run coefficient on squared income is negative and significant, indicating a change in trend of energy intensity. We then use our estimates to evaluate a medium-term forecast of energy demand in the Asian countries, using both a log-linear and a quadratic model. We find that in medium to high income countries the quadratic model performs better than the log-linear, with an average error of 9% against 43% in 1995. For the region as a whole, the quadratic model appears more adequate with a forecast error of 16% against 28% in 1995. These results are consistent with a process of dematerialization, which occurs as a result of a reduction of resource use per unit of GDP once an economy passes some threshold level of GDP per capita.

Suggested Citation

  • Rossana Galli, 1998. "The Relationship Between Energy Intensity and Income Levels: Forecasting Long Term Energy Demand in Asian Emerging Countries," The Energy Journal, , vol. 19(4), pages 85-105, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:19:y:1998:i:4:p:85-105
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol19-No4-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol19-No4-4
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol19-No4-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Farla, Jacco & Cuelenaere11, Rob & Blok, Kornelis, 1998. "Energy efficiency and structural change in the Netherlands, 1980-1990," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-28, February.
    2. repec:aen:journl:1997v18-03-a03 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:aen:journl:1987v08-02-a06 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Robert Summers & Alan Heston, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950–1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 327-368.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yang Liu & Weiwei Huang & Taoyuan Wei & Brantley Liddle, 2025. "Decoupling energy consumption from economic growth in Africa: the role of sectoral energy efficiency and economic structural change," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1-34, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Spruk, Rok, 2012. "After 20 Years of Status Quo: The Failure of Gradualism in Slovenia’s Post-Socialist Transition," MPRA Paper 36304, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Niklas Potrafke, 2016. "Policies against human trafficking: the role of religion and political institutions," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 353-386, November.
    3. Athanasoulis, S. & Shiller, R.J., 1995. "World Income Components: Measuring and Exploting International Risk Sharing Opportunities," Papers 725, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    4. Kosack, Stephen, 2003. "Effective Aid: How Democracy Allows Development Aid to Improve the Quality of Life," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-22, January.
    5. Saikku, Laura & Rautiainen, Aapo & Kauppi, Pekka E., 2008. "The sustainability challenge of meeting carbon dioxide targets in Europe by 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 730-742, February.
    6. Poschke, Markus, 2013. "The Decision to Become an Entrepreneur and the Firm Size Distribution: A Unifying Framework for Policy Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 7757, IZA Network @ LISER.
    7. Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 1996. "The role of trade in technology diffusion," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 114, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Tasso Adamopoulos, 2011. "Transportation Costs, Agricultural Productivity, And Cross‐Country Income Differences," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(2), pages 489-521, May.
    9. F. Gerard Adams & Byron Gangnes & Yochanan Shachmurove, 2006. "Why is China so Competitive? Measuring and Explaining China's Competitiveness," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 95-122, February.
    10. Potrafke, Niklas, 2013. "Globalization and labor market institutions: International empirical evidence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 829-842.
    11. Kimura, Hidemi & Mori, Yuko & Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2012. "Aid Proliferation and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-10.
    12. Danny Quah, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0280, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    13. Russell Davidson & Jean-Yves Duclos, 2000. "Statistical Inference for Stochastic Dominance and for the Measurement of Poverty and Inequality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1435-1464, November.
    14. Alex R. Horenstein & Manuel S. Santos, 2012. "A Cross-Country Analysis of Health Care Expenditures," Working Papers 2013-05, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    15. Calfat, Germán & Flôres, Renato G. & Acosta Rojas, Gina E., 2006. "Trade and infrastructure in the Andean Community," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    16. Rómulo Chumacero & Rodrigo Fuentes, 2005. "On the Determinants of Chilean Economic Growth," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.),General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy, edition 1, volume 9, chapter 5, pages 163-188, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2023. "Reprint of: Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(S), pages 56-69.
    18. Steve Dowrick, 1994. "Openness and Growth," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe & Jacqueline Dwyer (ed.),International Intergration of the Australian Economy, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    19. Kremer, Michael & Chen, Daniel L, 2002. "Income Distribution Dynamics with Endogenous Fertility," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 227-258, September.
    20. Chortareas G. & Desli E. & Pelagidis Th., 2002. "International Evidence on Convergence and Openness," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3-4), pages 1-91, July-Dece.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:19:y:1998:i:4:p:85-105. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.