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Comparative Analysis of Monetary Policy Shocks and Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Nigeria and South Africa

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  • Sulaiman L A
  • Lawal N A
  • Migiro S O

Abstract

The study examined a comparative analysis of monetary policy shocks and exchange rate fluctuations based on evidence from the two largest economies in Africa (Nigeria and South Africa) – from 1985 to 2015. Data were derived from various sources which include the National Bureau of Statistics, the Central Banks reports and the World Bank database. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Analysis was used as the estimation technique. The results indicated that the foreign interest rate in South Africa had higher variations in the short-run. While in the long-run, foreign interest rate has higher percentage variations to exchange rate. In Nigeria the world oil price has the higher influence on exchange rate both in the short-run and longrun periods. Based on these results, the study then recommended that the monetary authorities and policymakers in both countries encourage external currency inflows into the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Sulaiman L A & Lawal N A & Migiro S O, 2018. "Comparative Analysis of Monetary Policy Shocks and Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Nigeria and South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(6), pages 199-207.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:9:y:2018:i:6:p:199-207
    DOI: 10.22610/jebs.v9i6(J).2016
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    3. Mthuli Ncube & Eliphas Ndou, 2013. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks on South Africa’s Trade Balance," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Monetary Policy and the Economy in South Africa, chapter 7, pages 113-138, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    5. Imrana Asad & Nisar Ahmad & Zakir Hussain, 2012. "Impact of Real Effective Exchange Rate on Inflation in Pakistan," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(8), pages 983-990, December.
    6. Willem Van Zandweghe, 2015. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Aggregate Supply," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 31-56.
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