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Exchange Market Pressure and De Facto The Evolution of Demographic Phenomena in Terms of Globalization and Environmental Changes

Author

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  • Balan, Mariana

    () (Institute for Economic Forecasting NIER, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

Globalization, climatic changes and demography are the main forces modeling the development of societies, in general, and of each nation, in particular. Both offer opportunities but also imply challenges. The paper aims to identify and synthetically present some factors of influence which triggered by the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century a series of characteristics defining the changes in the demographic model and structure of population by age brackets. Romania’s population lost in the period 1992-2007 about 1250 thousand persons. Also, this paper presents the most important factors that determined the demographic decline beginning in the last decade of the 20th century at national level. For Romania, another phenomenon was represented by the demographic implications of the emigration of the female population of fertile age. The increasing share of female population in the emigration flows became more noticeable over the period 2002-2007. The paper presents the results obtained by using the Markov model for studying the development of demographic indicators in Romania, and their forecasting as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Balan, Mariana, 2010. "Exchange Market Pressure and De Facto The Evolution of Demographic Phenomena in Terms of Globalization and Environmental Changes," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 100-118, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2010:i:2:p:100-118
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. E. Paul Durrenberger, 2005. "Labour," Chapters,in: A Handbook of Economic Anthropology, chapter 8 Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    globalization; climate changes; demographic evolution; socio-economic impact; demo-economic factors; models; Markov models;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q59 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Other

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