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Regulation with 20-20 Hindsight: "Heads I Win, Tails You Lose"?

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  • Thomas P. Lyon

Abstract

Regulators are commonly accused of using 20-20 hindsight to punish a firm for bad outcomes rather than bad decisions; it is often thought that such penalties lead to underinvestment by the firm. I find that this expectation is not borne out when retrospective review is based on the firm's avoided costs. In a Joskow-type model, hindsight review mitigates the firm's tendency to build oversized risky projects, moving the firm closer to the cost-minimizing level of investment. In a rate-of-return model, the firm's allowed rate of return may have to be increased to keep expected profits nonnegative. If this is done, hindsight review does not affect the firm's investment level, but it does correct the (risk-neutral) firm's tendency to pay an excessive premium to eliminate construction cost uncertainty.

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  • Thomas P. Lyon, 1991. "Regulation with 20-20 Hindsight: "Heads I Win, Tails You Lose"?," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 22(4), pages 581-595, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:rje:randje:v:22:y:1991:i:winter:p:581-595
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Barmack & Edward Kahn & Susan Tierney, 2007. "A cost-benefit assessment of wholesale electricity restructuring and competition in New England," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 151-184, April.
    2. Larry Blank & John Mayo, 2009. "Endogenous Regulatory Constraints and the Emergence of Hybrid Regulation," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 35(3), pages 233-255, November.
    3. Dominik Schober, 2013. "Refinancing under Yardstick Regulation with Investment Cycles–The Case of Long-Lived Electricity Network Assets," EWL Working Papers 1321, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Jun 2013.
    4. Maxwell, John W & Lyon, Thomas P & Hackett, Steven C, 2000. "Self-Regulation and Social Welfare: The Political Economy of Corporate Environmentalism," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(2), pages 583-617, October.
    5. Ana Espinola-Arredondo & Felix Munoz-Garcia & Dolores Garrido, 2023. "Measuring regulatory errors from environmental policy uncertainty," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 48-65, December.
    6. Schober, Dominik & Weber, Christoph, 2015. "Refinancing under yardstick regulation with investment cycles: The case of long-lived electricity network assets," ZEW Discussion Papers 15-065, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Roland Strausz, 2009. "Regulatory Risk under Optimal Incentive Regulation," CESifo Working Paper Series 2638, CESifo.
    8. Graeme Guthrie, 2006. "Regulating Infrastructure: The Impact on Risk and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 925-972, December.
    9. Kumkar, Lars, 2001. "Strommarkt Kalifornien: Ein Liberalisierungsmodell kämpft um das politische Überleben," Kiel Working Papers 1023, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Kumkar, Lars, 2001. "Strommarktliberalisierung in Kalifornien: Schlägt das Pendel zurück?," Kiel Discussion Papers 378/379, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Sappington, David E. M. & Weisman, Dennis L., 1996. "Potential pitfalls in empirical investigations of the effects of incentive regulation plans in the telecommunications industry," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 125-140, June.
    12. Ingo Vogelsang, 1999. "Optimal Price Regulation for Natural and Legal Monopolies," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(1), pages 5-43, January-J.
    13. Thomas Lyon & Nathan Wilson, 2012. "Capture or contract? The early years of electric utility regulation," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 225-241, December.
    14. Stratford Douglas & Thomas A. Garrett & Russell M. Rhine, 2009. "Disallowances and overcapitalization in the U.S. electric utility industry," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Jan), pages 23-32.
    15. Weisman, Dennis L., 2002. "Is there 'Hope' for price cap regulation?," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 349-370, September.
    16. Espinola-Arredondo, Ana & Munoz-Garcia, Felix, 2021. "Abolishing Environmental Regulation: Strategic E§ects and Welfare Implications," Working Papers 2018-7, School of Economic Sciences, Washington State University.
    17. Spiller, Pablo T. & Vogelsang, Ingo & DEC, 1994. "Regulation, institutions, and commitment in the British telecommunications sector," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1241, The World Bank.
    18. Armstrong, Mark & Sappington, David E.M., 2007. "Recent Developments in the Theory of Regulation," Handbook of Industrial Organization, in: Mark Armstrong & Robert Porter (ed.), Handbook of Industrial Organization, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1557-1700, Elsevier.

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