Global financial structure and climate change
Little of the literature from economists on climate change has focused on how accelerating climate change will affect economic structure, and the consequences which follow. Here we analyze the medium- to long-term implications of global warming for global financial structure. Stern (2007) suggests that greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activities could lead to global temperature increases of between 1 and 5°C by 2050. This will result in a large increase in global risk of extreme weather events, changing crop yields, sea level rise, and adverse health effects. Part of this risk, while uncertain, is non-diversifiable; but the other part, while diversifiable, is difficult for conventional insurance arrangements to accommodate. No established pattern of location or feature specific risks exists that are comparable to annual mortality tables for life cover. Insurance arrangements regulated on a national basis pose further possible problems. The response, we suggest, will be global financial market innovation primarily in the area of insurance, but also in diversification of asset holdings. Pressures will also build for a very large increase in government provided insurance. We suggest in this paper that, even with modest climate changes of 1 to 2°C, global insurance markets will expand dramatically. Under more extreme climate change scenarios, the entire global financial structure will undergo major change, with a refocusing of major financial activity away from intermediation between borrowers and lenders and the facilitation of the accumulation of assets, towards a focus on insurance arrangements and the diversification of risks associated with climate change. This will likely involve new contingent instruments, new issuers and financial institutions, and extensive government involvement.
Volume (Year): 25 (2009)
Issue (Month): ()
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- Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-71, September.
- Robert J. Nicholls & Richard S.J. Tol & Athanasios T. Vafeidis, 2005. "Global Estimates Of The Impact Of A Collapse Of The West Antarctic Ice Sheet: An Application Of Fund," Working Papers FNU-78, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2005.
- Richard S.J. Tol & Samuel Fankhauser & Richard G. Richels & Joel B. Smith, 2000. "How Much Damage Will Climate Change Do?," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 1(4), pages 179-206, October.
- Erwann Michel-Kerjan & Frederic Morlaye, 2008. "Extreme Events, Global Warming, and Insurance-Linked Securities: How to Trigger the “Tipping Point”," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 33(1), pages 153-176, January.
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