IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/apltrx/0370.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling the dynamics of income distribution in Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Nartikoev, Alan

    () (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Peresetsky, Anatoly

    () (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract

In this paper, the four-parameter generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GB2) is applied to simulate the distribution of the income of Russian population based on the quarterly micro-data of household income for the period from 2003 to 2015. The distribution parameters were estimated via the maximum weighted-likelihood method, and the distributional parameter estimates were aggregated into quarterly time series. The time series have undergone the decomposition by the STL method. ARIMA and exponential smoothing models were applied to the trend component of the time series, and the distributional parameter forecasts were produced. Based on the predicted values of the distribution parameters, several inequality measures was estimated, such as at-risk-of-poverty rate, relative median poverty gap, quintile share ratio and Gini index. Thus, the robust estimates of inequality measures were obtained, the prediction accuracy of which was about 5%. An analysis of the dynamics of distributional parameters yielded an interesting conclusion that during the crisis periods the nominal level of income inequality decreases, in contrast to common apparent belief that negative macroeconomic shocks induce higher inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Nartikoev, Alan & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2019. "Modeling the dynamics of income distribution in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 54, pages 105-125.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0370
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pe.cemi.rssi.ru/pe_2019_54_105-125.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    generalized beta-distribution of the second kind; inequality measures; income distribution; Russia.;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:0370. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anatoly Peresetsky). General contact details of provider: http://appliedeconometrics.cemi.rssi.ru/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.