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An approach to assessing the growth of the regional economy as a result of investment projects

Author

Listed:
  • Mikhail Afanasiev

    (CEMI RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation)

  • Aleksei Gusev

    (CEMI RAS, Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract

The paper proposes a solution to assessing gross regional product growth resulting from investment projects while accounting for the regional economy’s structural complexity. We construct a hybrid GRP production function that combines two theoretical approaches. The first is the neoclassical production theory in terms of modeling the main factors of production. The second is the theory of economic complexity in terms of modeling the relative level of scientific and technological progress driven by structural changes in regional economies. The production function incorporates an index of the structural complexity of regional economies. The elasticities of GRP with respect to labor and capital are functions of the regional differentiation characteristics. This approach allows us to move from estimating elasticity coefficients that are common to the entire set of regions to region-specific elasticity estimates. The results indicate that expanding the set of differentiation characteristics and functions that determine the GRP elasticity coefficients values for labor and fixed assets can improve the GRP model’s statistical characteristics. This, in turn, yields more accurate estimates of GRP growth resulting from investment projects.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikhail Afanasiev & Aleksei Gusev, 2026. "An approach to assessing the growth of the regional economy as a result of investment projects," Applied Econometrics, Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 83, pages 5-25.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:apltrx:023597
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hausmann, Ricardo & Klinger, Bailey, 2006. "Structural Transformation and Patterns of Comparative Advantage in the Product Space," Working Paper Series rwp06-041, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    2. Hausmann, Ricardo & Hidalgo, Cesar, 2014. "The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262525429, December.
    3. T. Yu. Ivakhnenko & A. V. Polbin & S. G. Sinelnikov-Murylev, 2024. "Economic complexity and income inequality in Russian regions," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 5.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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