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Économétrie de la finance : l’exemple du risque de crédit

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  • Gouriéroux, Christian

    (CREST)

Abstract

We discuss the main opened questions related to credit risk, that is the default risk of a borrower. These questions concern the prediction of default (term structure of default, default correlation, recovery rate, determination of the required capital), the pricing of debts (according to risk neutral, actuarial or accounting approaches), and the construction of appropriate databases. Nous présentons les principales questions ouvertes liées au risque de crédit, c’est-à-dire au non-remboursement des dettes par un emprunteur défaillant (structure par terme de défauts, corrélation de défaut, taux de recouvrement, calcul de réserves). Ces questions concernent aussi bien la prévision des défaillances, que la valorisation des dettes (selon des approches risque neutre, comptable ou actuarielle) ou la constitution de bases de données adéquates.

Suggested Citation

  • Gouriéroux, Christian, 2003. "Économétrie de la finance : l’exemple du risque de crédit," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 79(4), pages 399-418, Décembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:79:y:2003:i:4:p:399-418
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    1. C. Gourieroux & A. Monfort & V. Polimenis, 2006. "Affine Models for Credit Risk Analysis," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 494-530.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Richard, Scott F, 1987. "The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 587-613, May.
    3. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    4. Serge Darolles & Christian Gourieroux & Joann Jasiak, 2006. "Structural Laplace Transform and Compound Autoregressive Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 477-503, July.
    5. Robert A. Jarrow & Fan Yu, 2008. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 20, pages 481-515, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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