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Les perspectives à moyen terme du marché du travail au Québec

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  • Van Audenrode, Marc


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    In this paper, we analyze the impact on Quebec’s economy, and more specifically on Quebec’s labor market, from the massive expected retirement of the Baby-boomers generation. We show that as the result of the increased average age of the population, health care costs will significantly increase, while, in the meantime, the arrival of much smaller cohorts on the labor market will limit our ability to produce goods and services. As a consequence, even if we form the most optimistic forecast on the evolution of Quebec’s economic environment, real growth of per-capita income in Quebec will be less than 3% yearly over the next 20 years. Ce texte analyse l’impact attendu sur l’économie québécoise, et plus particuliè­rement son marché du travail, du retrait massif attendu de la vie active de la génération des baby-boomers. Nous montrons que le vieillissement de la population québécoise qui accompagnera ce phénomène démographique fera augmenter de façon significative le coût des soins de santé. Dans le même temps, l’arrivée de plus petites cohortes sur le marché du travail limitera notre capacité à produire des biens et services. En conséquence, même si l’on forme des attentes très optimistes par rapport à l’évolution économique, le taux de croissance du niveau de vie au Québec restera largement inférieur à 3 % au cours des 20 prochaines années.

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    Article provided by Société Canadienne de Science Economique in its journal L'Actualité économique.

    Volume (Year): 78 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 4 (Décembre)
    Pages: 487-510

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    Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:78:y:2002:i:4:p:487-510
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