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Les taux de chômage canadien et américain dans les années 1980 : un test de trois hypothèses

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  • McCallum, John

    (University McGill)

Abstract

In the absence of adverse price shocks, the neo-Keynesian Phillips curve states that wage settlements will be falling whenever unemployment exceeds its natural level. Yet Canadian wage settlements have been stable since 1984 despite very high levels of unemployment. Three possible explanations are investigated: a large increase in the natural unemployment rate, a non-linear Phillips curve, and "hysteresis". La courbe de Phillips keynésienne stipule qu’en l’absence de perturbations inflationnistes défavorables la croissance des salaires nominaux ralentit lorsque le taux de chômage excède son niveau naturel. Pourtant, depuis 1984, bien que le taux de chômage moyen ait été très élevé, les augmentations de salaire n’ont pas ralenti au Canada. Trois explications possibles de ce paradoxe sont envisagées : une augmentation sensible du taux de chômage naturel, la non-linéarité de la courbe de Phillips, et un effet d’hystérésis sur le chômage.

Suggested Citation

  • McCallum, John, 1988. "Les taux de chômage canadien et américain dans les années 1980 : un test de trois hypothèses," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 64(4), pages 494-508, décembre.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:v:64:y:1988:i:4:p:494-508
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    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    4. John McCallum, 1987. "Unemployment in Canada and the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 20(4), pages 802-822, November.
    5. Hargreaves Heap, S P, 1980. "Choosing the Wrong 'Natural' Rate: Accelerating Inflation or Decelerating Employment and Growth?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(359), pages 611-620, September.
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