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Unemployment and stability of inflation: The concept of the NAIRU in an international perspective and an estimation for Germany using business survey data

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  • Franz, Wolfgang
  • Hofmann, Thomas

Abstract

A common method of evaluating the scope for demand expansion is to try to estimate a threshold rate of unemployment above which policies of demand stimulus are non-inflationary. However, this non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) seems to have been anything but stable over the past decade. In the absence of major shocks it is an increasingly popular argument that the NAIRU itself depends on the time-path of previous actual unemployment. This effect has been christened "hysteresis" and various channels through which hysteresis may work are discussed in this paper. Moreover, we estimate the NAIRU for the Federal Republic of Germany using categorical business survey data for inflationary expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Franz, Wolfgang & Hofmann, Thomas, 1989. "Unemployment and stability of inflation: The concept of the NAIRU in an international perspective and an estimation for Germany using business survey data," Discussion Papers, Series II 87, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kondp2:87
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    1. Franz, Wolfgang & Konig, Heinz, 1986. "The Nature and Causes of Unemployment in the Federal Republic of Germany since the 1970s: An Empirical Investigation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages 219-244, Supplemen.
    2. Dreze, Jacques H., 1987. "Underemployment equilibria : From theory to econometrics and policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 9-34.
    3. Konig, Heinz & Nerlove, Marc & Oudiz, Gilles, 1981. "On the formation of price expectations : An analysis of business test data by log-linear probability models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 103-138.
    4. Franz, Wolfgang, 1983. "The past decade's natural rate and the dynamics of german unemployment: A case against demand policy?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 51-76.
    5. Solow, Robert M, 1986. "Unemployment: Getting the Questions Right," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages 23-34, Supplemen.
    6. Bruno, Michael, 1986. "Aggregate Supply and Demand Factors in OECD Unemployment: An Update," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages 35-52, Supplemen.
    7. Solow, Robert M, 1985. " Insiders and Outsiders in Wage Determination," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(2), pages 411-428.
    8. Gregory, R G, 1986. "Wages Policy and Unemployment in Australia," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages 53-74, Supplemen.
    9. Lindbeck, Assar & Snower, Dennis J, 1986. "Wage Setting, Unemployment, and Insider-Outsider Relations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 235-239, May.
    10. Hargreaves Heap, S P, 1980. "Choosing the Wrong 'Natural' Rate: Accelerating Inflation or Decelerating Employment and Growth?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(359), pages 611-620, September.
    11. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1, June.
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