IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rfh/bbejor/v13y2024i3p156-164.html

Demystifying Financial Speculation in Commodity Future Markets of Emerging Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Khushnoor Khan

    (Department of Business Management, MY University Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan)

  • Daniyal Ejaz

    (Department of Business Management, MY University Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan)

Abstract

Present study focuses on comparing financial speculation on commodity future markets of China and India. Two agricultural products and two metal products were chosen from both countries for the present study. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset spanning over twenty years, we employ quantitative methods to measure the hedging and speculative ratios within Chinese and Indian commodity future markets. Relevant results and visual representations were extracted using EVIEWS. Outcome of the study demonstrated that Indian commodity future markets are more speculative than Chinese commodity future markets both in cases of agricultural and metal products. The results will provide valuable implications for policymakers and market participants aiming to compare financial speculation in commodity markets vis-Ã -vis emerging economies like China and India. Additionally, the outcomes of this study are particularly relevant for market players, and policymakers to comprehend the mind-set/behavioural pattern of investors trading in Chinese and Indian commodity future markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Khushnoor Khan & Daniyal Ejaz, 2024. "Demystifying Financial Speculation in Commodity Future Markets of Emerging Economies," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 13(3), pages 156-164.
    • Handle: RePEc:rfh:bbejor:v:13:y:2024:i:3:p:156-164
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.61506/01.00460
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bbejournal.com/BBE/article/view/910/1041
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://bbejournal.com/BBE/article/view/910
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.61506/01.00460?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucia, Julio J. & Mansanet-Bataller, Maria & Pardo, Ángel, 2015. "Speculative and hedging activities in the European carbon market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 342-351.
    2. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R. & Merrin, Robert P., 2009. "Devil or Angel? The Role of Speculation in the Recent Commodity Price Boom (and Bust)," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 377-391, August.
    3. Bianchi, Robert J. & Fan, John Hua & Zhang, Tingxi, 2021. "Investable commodity premia in China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Manogna RL & Aswini Kumar Mishra, 2021. "Financialization of Indian agricultural commodities: the case of index investments," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 49(1), pages 73-96, September.
    5. Boyd, Naomi E. & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Li, Bingxin, 2018. "An update on speculation and financialization in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 91-104.
    6. Palao, Fernando & Pardo, Angel, 2012. "Assessing price clustering in European Carbon Markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 51-56.
    7. Abby Kim, 2015. "Does Futures Speculation Destabilize Commodity Markets?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(8), pages 696-714, August.
    8. Wenjin Kang & K. Geert Rouwenhorst & Ke Tang, 2020. "A Tale of Two Premiums: The Role of Hedgers and Speculators in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 377-417, February.
    9. Peck, Anne E., 1982. "Estimation of Hedging and Speculative Positions in Futures Markets Revisited," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 18(2), pages 1-16.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin T. Bohl & Pierre L. Siklos & Claudia Wellenreuther, 2018. "Speculative Activity and Returns Volatility of Chinese Major Agricultural Commodity Futures," CAMA Working Papers 2018-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L. & Wellenreuther, Claudia, 2018. "Speculative activity and returns volatility of Chinese agricultural commodity futures," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 69-91.
    3. Fan, John Hua & Mo, Di & Zhang, Tingxi, 2022. "The “necessary evil” in Chinese commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    4. Jian Li & Jean‐Paul Chavas, 2023. "A dynamic analysis of the distribution of commodity futures and spot prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(1), pages 122-143, January.
    5. Mert Demir & Terrence F. Martell & Lene Skou, 2025. "Agricultural Futures Contracts as Part of a Sustainable Investment Strategy: Issues and Opportunities," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-20, August.
    6. Ludwig, Michael, 2019. "Speculation and its impact on liquidity in commodity markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 532-547.
    7. Filippo Natoli, 2021. "Financialization Of Commodities Before And After The Great Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 488-511, April.
    8. Algirdas Justinas Staugaitis & Bernardas Vaznonis, 2022. "Short-Term Speculation Effects on Agricultural Commodity Returns and Volatility in the European Market Prior to and during the Pandemic," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-26, April.
    9. Boyd, Naomi E. & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Li, Bingxin, 2018. "An update on speculation and financialization in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 91-104.
    10. Hang Shao & Zhou Li, 2025. "The predictive effect of heterogeneous investor behavior on commodity pricing," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    11. Theodora Bermpei & Athanasios Triantafyllou, 2025. "The Determinants of Marginal Convenience Yield in Agricultural Commodity Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(4), pages 289-307, April.
    12. Ganepola, Chanaka N. & Zarei, Alireza & Tony-Okeke, Uchenna, 2025. "The other side of the coin: Speculation in bearish natural gas markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    13. Dedi, Valentina & Mandilaras, Alex, 2022. "Trader positions and the price of oil in the futures market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 448-460.
    14. Algirdas Justinas Staugaitis & Bernardas Vaznonis, 2022. "Financial Speculation Impact on Agricultural and Other Commodity Return Volatility: Implications for Sustainable Development and Food Security," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-27, November.
    15. Lai, Ya-Wen & Lin, Chiou-Fa & Tang, Mei-Ling, 2017. "Mispricing and trader positions in the S&P 500 index futures market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 250-265.
    16. Yao, Wei, 2025. "The US Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy and Commodities’ Prices," Other publications TiSEM 185d14d3-9dc2-4276-82ec-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. Libo Yin & Qingyuan Yang & Zhi Su, 2017. "Predictability of structural co-movement in commodity prices: the role of technical indicators," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 795-812, May.
    18. Hossfeld, Oliver & Röthig, Andreas, 2016. "Do speculative traders anticipate or follow USD/EUR exchange rate movements? New evidence on the efficiency of the EUR currency futures market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 218-225.
    19. John Hua Fan & Tingxi Zhang, 2024. "Commodity premia and risk management," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(7), pages 1097-1116, July.
    20. Adjemian, Michael K. & Bruno, Valentina G. & Robe, Michel A., 2016. "What Drives Volatility Expectations in Grain Markets?," 2016 Conference, April 18-19, 2016, St. Louis, Missouri 285861, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rfh:bbejor:v:13:y:2024:i:3:p:156-164. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr. Muhammad Irfan Chani The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Dr. Muhammad Irfan Chani to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rffhlpk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.