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Do Stock Returns Hedge against High and Low Inflation? Evidence from Brazilian Companies

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  • Taufiq Choudhry
  • Rene Coppe Pimentel

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between stock returns and inflation using monthly data from ten Brazilian firms and the general Brazilian stock market. The period under investigation, 1986-2008, includes periods of unstable high inflation (1986-1994) and stable low inflation (1994-2008). Standard linear regressions are applied to estimate the relationship after testing first for the stochastic structure of the variables. Results indicate that stock returns do act as a hedge against high inflation but fail to act against low inflation. Variance decomposition tests indicate innovations to the inflation rate affect the movement of the stock returns during the total period and the high inflation period.

Suggested Citation

  • Taufiq Choudhry & Rene Coppe Pimentel, 2010. "Do Stock Returns Hedge against High and Low Inflation? Evidence from Brazilian Companies," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 2(2), pages 061-076, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:rfb:journl:v:02:y:2010:i:2:p:061-076
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boucher, Christophe, 2006. "Stock prices-inflation puzzle and the predictability of stock market returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 205-212, February.
    2. Kaul, Gautam, 1987. "Stock returns and inflation : The role of the monetary sector," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 253-276, June.
    3. Peter Blair Henry, 2002. "Is Disinflation Good for the Stock Market?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1617-1648, August.
    4. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    5. Jaffe, Jeffrey F & Mandelker, Gershon, 1976. "The "Fisher Effect" for Risky Assets: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 447-458, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dragos Stefan Oprea, 2014. "The Fisher effect: Evidence from the Romanian Stock Market," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(5), pages 637-644, May.

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