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Analysisof Factors Influencing the Usage of Seasonal Forecast in Drought Prone Area: A Case of East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia


  • Heri Kuswanto

    (Department of Statistics, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember (ITS), Surabaya, Indonesia)


This research aims to investigatefactors influencing the households in East Nusa Tenggara (NTT) Indonesia to use seasonalforecast issued by the Meteorological Office (BMKG) Indonesia. NTT is a highly vulnerable region to drought, and hence, understanding thefutureweather and climate condition is a crucial issue. Household survey was conducted to interview 300 households in NTTasking about their intention to utilize the forecast information in supporting their livelihood. Furthermore, this research investigates whether the households characteristicsinfluencing the intention. Using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART), this researchfound that the intention to use forecast is dominantly influenced by age of the household head, ownership ofhousehold assets, main source of income, crop andlivestock activities and water source for livestock. Key Words:Forecast, CART, Adaptation, Livestock

Suggested Citation

  • Heri Kuswanto, 2019. "Analysisof Factors Influencing the Usage of Seasonal Forecast in Drought Prone Area: A Case of East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 8(3), pages 64-71, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:rbs:ijbrss:v:8:y:2019:i:3:p:64-71

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    1. Negatu, W. & Parikh, A., 1999. "The impact of perception and other factors on the adoption of agricultural technology in the Moret and Jiru Woreda (district) of Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 205-216, October.
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