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La nouvelle économie irlandaise

  • Yannick L'Horty
  • Nathalie Greenan

[fre] Nathalie Greenan Yannick L'Horty La nouvelle économie irlandaise. II y a 1 5 ans, l'économie irlandaise avait l'un des niveaux de vie les plus faibles en Europe tandis que le taux de chômage, l'inflation et la dette publique étaient très élevés. Depuis, elle connaît le rythme de croissance le plus soutenu de l'ensemble des pays de l'OCDE. Son PIB a doublé ces dix dernières années et triplé ces vingt dernières années. Certes, ces performances sont le contre coup du retard accumulé depuis les années 1950, mais l'effet de rattrapage lié à une convergence tardive n'explique pas tout. Sur la base d'un survol des études économiques existantes et d'apports statistiques originaux, on s'interroge sur les causes de cette croissance qui relève d'un contexte international fevorable mais aussi de facteurs spécifiquement nationaux, faisant de la croissance de l'Irlande à la fois une réussite américaine, européenne et irlandaise. Cette performance exceptionnelle d'une petite économie très ouverte ne relève pas d'une cause unique, mais d'une combinaison de facteurs... exceptionnelle. Pour sortir de l'impasse, l'Irlande a su mobiliser en même temps des ressources extérieures et intérieures au service de son développement. D'un côté, les transformations graduelles des conditions de l'offre permettent d'expliquer la pérennité de la croissance mais pas sa chronologie. D'un autre côté, des chocs de demande favorables expliquent le calendrier de la reprise mais pas son amplitude. Après de nombreuses tentatives infructueuses, un consensus sur un diagnostic économique et sur un ensemble de moyens permettant d'y foire face s'est imposé durablement en Irlande créant une stabilité favorable à la croissance. [eng] The New Irish Economy Fifteen years ago, the Irish economy had one of the lowest standards of living in Europe, while her unemployment rate, inflation and public debt reached high levels. Since, her growth rhythm is the most sustained within OECD countries. Her GDP has doubled over the last ten years and tripled over the last twenty years. Most certainly, these performances are the out- come of the lag accumulated since the fifties, but the catching up effect connected with a late convergence does not explain everything. We enquire the causes of this growth through a survey of existing economic studies and original statistical analyses. A favourable international context, but also specifically national factors have played their part, resulting in a success which has at the same time an American, European and Irish origin. These outstanding performances obtained by a small and widely opened economy do not take up from a single cause but from a combination of factors which is. . .unique. To come out from the deadlock, Ireland has found how to activate external and internal resources for the sake of its development. On one side, gradual transformations on the supply side explain the durability of sustained growth, but not its chronology. On the other side, favourable demand shocks explain the calendar of the recovery but not its size. After numerous unsuccessful attempts, a consensus on an economic diagnosis and on a set of means to come to grips with it made its way durably in Ireland, generating a growth supporting stability.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue française d'économie.

Volume (Year): 19 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 3-60

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Handle: RePEc:prs:rfreco:rfeco_0769-0479_2004_num_19_2_1546
Note: DOI:10.3406/rfeco.2004.1546
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/rfeco

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