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La baisse des taux d'intérêt en France : quels effets en attendre ?

  • Michel Boutillier
  • Daniel Gabrielli
  • Dominique Plihon

[fre] La baisse des taux d'intérêt en France : quels effets en attendre ? Cet article a pour objet d'étudier les effets d'une baisse des taux d'intérêt sur l'économie française, dans le contexte actuel. La démarche suivie se décompose en deux étapes : une analyse synthétique de la littérature théorique est d'abord présentée. On montre le caractère complexe et contradictoire des mécanismes mis en Jeu par les variations de taux d'intérêt. La seconde partie de l'article est consacrée à l'analyse des résultats des principaux modèles économétriques français. Celle-ci permet d'isoler les mécanismes et les comportements qui jouent un rôle crucial dans la détermination du sens et de l'amplitude de l'effet de la baisse des taux d'intérêt. [eng] Consequences of the decrease in the level of interest rates in France This article gives a theoretical and empirical analysis of the consequences of a decrease in the level of interest rates in the French economy. In the first part of the paper, a survey of the prevailing theoretical litterature is presented. It is chown that the effects of interest rate changes are complex and often work in opposite directions. The last part of this study deals with the empirical results derived from the main French macroeconometric models. The authors emphasize the mechanisms and the patterns of behavior which play a crucial role in determining the global impact of a decline in interest rates.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/reco.1988.409098
Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

File URL: http://www.persee.fr/doc/reco_0035-2764_1988_num_39_4_409098
Download Restriction: Data and metadata provided by Persée are licensed under a Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0" License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 39 (1988)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 841-876

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Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1988_num_39_4_409098
Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1988.409098
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/collection/reco

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  1. Henri Sterdyniak & Marie-Annick Boudier & Michel Boutillier & Françoise Charpin & Bruno Durand, 1984. "Le modèle trimestriel de l'OFCE," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 9(1), pages 137-178.
  2. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Jacques Le Cacheux & François Lecointe & Christian Vasseur, 1986. "Taux d'intérêt réels et activité économique. Un essai d'interprétation théorique et de mesure empirique," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 15(1), pages 145-173.
  3. Philippe Szymczak, 1987. "Taux d'intérêt et système bancaire," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 77(1), pages 3-39.
  4. Michel Boutillier & Pierre Villa, 1985. "Politique monétaire en économie d'endettement vue à travaes le modèle OFCE-annuel," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 13(1), pages 119-147.
  5. Patrick Artus & Claude Bismut, 1980. "Substitution et coût des facteurs : un lien existe-t-il ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 127(1), pages 101-114.
  6. Alain Fonteneau, 1983. "Le modèle « OFCE-annuel»," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 5(1), pages 53-79.
  7. Marc-Olivier Strauss-Kahn, 1986. "Mécanismes de transmission et effets macro-économiques de la politique monétaire en France : Les principaux enseignements économétriques," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 33, OECD Publishing.
  8. Pete Richardson, 1987. "A Review of the Simulation Properties of OECD's INTERLINK Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 47, OECD Publishing.
  9. Jean-Paul Pollin, 1977. "Les prix industriels dans l'inflation," Post-Print halshs-00287649, HAL.
  10. Mario Dehove, 1982. "Un modèle de l'intermediation financière française : Prolix," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 53(2), pages 3-72.
  11. Jean-Paul Pollin, 1977. "Les prix industriels dans l'inflation. Une approche économétrique," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 28(6), pages 892-937.
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