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La baisse des taux d'intérêt en France : quels effets en attendre ?

  • Michel Boutillier
  • Daniel Gabrielli
  • Dominique Plihon

[fre] La baisse des taux d'intérêt en France : quels effets en attendre ? Cet article a pour objet d'étudier les effets d'une baisse des taux d'intérêt sur l'économie française, dans le contexte actuel. La démarche suivie se décompose en deux étapes : une analyse synthétique de la littérature théorique est d'abord présentée. On montre le caractère complexe et contradictoire des mécanismes mis en Jeu par les variations de taux d'intérêt. La seconde partie de l'article est consacrée à l'analyse des résultats des principaux modèles économétriques français. Celle-ci permet d'isoler les mécanismes et les comportements qui jouent un rôle crucial dans la détermination du sens et de l'amplitude de l'effet de la baisse des taux d'intérêt. [eng] Consequences of the decrease in the level of interest rates in France This article gives a theoretical and empirical analysis of the consequences of a decrease in the level of interest rates in the French economy. In the first part of the paper, a survey of the prevailing theoretical litterature is presented. It is chown that the effects of interest rate changes are complex and often work in opposite directions. The last part of this study deals with the empirical results derived from the main French macroeconometric models. The authors emphasize the mechanisms and the patterns of behavior which play a crucial role in determining the global impact of a decline in interest rates.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 39 (1988)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 841-876

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Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1988_num_39_4_409098
Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1988.409098
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