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La baisse des taux d'intérêt en France : quels effets en attendre ?

Author

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  • Michel Boutillier
  • Daniel Gabrielli
  • Dominique Plihon

Abstract

[fre] La baisse des taux d'intérêt en France : quels effets en attendre ?. . Cet article a pour objet d'étudier les effets d'une baisse des taux d'intérêt sur l'économie française, dans le contexte actuel. La démarche suivie se décompose en deux étapes : une analyse synthétique de la littérature théorique est d'abord présentée. On montre le caractère complexe et contradictoire des mécanismes mis en Jeu par les variations de taux d'intérêt. La seconde partie de l'article est consacrée à l'analyse des résultats des principaux modèles économétriques français. Celle-ci permet d'isoler les mécanismes et les comportements qui jouent un rôle crucial dans la détermination du sens et de l'amplitude de l'effet de la baisse des taux d'intérêt. [eng] Consequences of the decrease in the level of interest rates in France. . This article gives a theoretical and empirical analysis of the consequences of a decrease in the level of interest rates in the French economy. In the first part of the paper, a survey of the prevailing theoretical litterature is presented. It is chown that the effects of interest rate changes are complex and often work in opposite directions. The last part of this study deals with the empirical results derived from the main French macroeconometric models. The authors emphasize the mechanisms and the patterns of behavior which play a crucial role in determining the global impact of a decline in interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Boutillier & Daniel Gabrielli & Dominique Plihon, 1988. "La baisse des taux d'intérêt en France : quels effets en attendre ?," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 39(4), pages 841-876.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1988_num_39_4_409098
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1988.409098
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Jacques Le Cacheux & François Lecointe & Christian Vasseur, 1986. "Taux d'intérêt réels et activité économique. Un essai d'interprétation théorique et de mesure empirique," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 15(1), pages 145-173.
    2. Marc-Olivier Strauss-Kahn, 1986. "Mécanismes de transmission et effets macro-économiques de la politique monétaire en France : Les principaux enseignements économétriques," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 33, OECD Publishing.
    3. Philippe Szymczak, 1987. "Taux d'intérêt et système bancaire," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 77(1), pages 3-39.
    4. Patrick Artus & Claude Bismut, 1980. "Substitution et coût des facteurs : un lien existe-t-il ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 127(1), pages 101-114.
    5. Henri Sterdyniak & Marie-Annick Boudier & Michel Boutillier & Françoise Charpin & Bruno Durand, 1984. "Le modèle trimestriel de l'OFCE," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 9(1), pages 137-178.
    6. Alain Fonteneau, 1983. "Le modèle « OFCE-annuel»," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 5(1), pages 53-79.
    7. Pete Richardson, 1987. "A Review of the Simulation Properties of OECD's INTERLINK Model," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 47, OECD Publishing.
    8. Jean-Paul Pollin, 1977. "Les prix industriels dans l'inflation. Une approche économétrique," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 28(6), pages 892-937.
    9. Mario Dehove, 1982. "Un modèle de l'intermediation financière française : Prolix," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 53(2), pages 3-72.
    10. Jean-Paul Pollin, 1977. "Les prix industriels dans l'inflation," Post-Print halshs-00287649, HAL.
    11. Michel Boutillier & Pierre Villa, 1985. "Politique monétaire en économie d'endettement vue à travaes le modèle OFCE-annuel," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 13(1), pages 119-147.
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    1. Michel Boutillier & Sabine Dérangère, 1992. "Le taux du crédit accordé aux entreprises françaises : coûts opératoires des banques et prime de risque de défaut," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(2), pages 363-382.

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