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L'impact macro-économique d'un choc pétrolier

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  • Pierre-Yves Hénin

Abstract

[eng] The macro-economic impact of an oil shock. Pierre-Yves Hénin. The paper provides an analysis of maicroeconomic effets of an oil shock in an economy where prices and wages are sticky in the short run. It relies upon a model which is basically a « disequilibrium » version of .Sachs-Bruno two period model, assuming rationing equilibrium in the first period and walrasian équilibrium in the second one. Both firms and households are intertemporal maximisers, explicit budget constraints are considered and a special attention is paid to the case when a liquidity constraint is imposed to households. For each disiquilibrium regime, the effects of an increase in price of imported oil are shown and the paper give conditions for an oil shock to lead to keynesian unemployment rather than to classical unemployment. It appears that an oil shock is likely to drive in classical. unemployement a net exporting country, an illustration of the so called « Dutch Disease ». [fre] L'article propose une analyse de l'impact macro-économique d'un choc pétrolier dans une économie où les prix et les salaires sont rigides à court terme. Il s'appuie sur un modèle qui peut s'interpréter comme une variante « en déséquilibre » de modèles considérés par M. Bruno et J. Sachs, en supposant un déséquilibre dans la première période et l'équilibre complet à la seconde. A la fois les entreprises et les ménages procèdent à une optimisation intertemporelle, des contraintes de budget explicites sont introduites et l'on envisage en particulier le cas où une contrainte de liquidité est imposée aux ménages. Pour chaque régime d'équilibre avec rationnements, on montre les effets d'un accroissement de prix du pétrole importé et l'article donne les conditions sous lesquelles un choc pétrolier engendrent du chômage keynésien plutôt que du chômage classique. Il apparaît également que le choc pétrolier peut engendrer du chômage classique dans un pays exportateur net, ce qui constitue une illustration du « syndrome hollandais ».

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre-Yves Hénin, 1983. "L'impact macro-économique d'un choc pétrolier," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 34(5), pages 865-896.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1983_num_34_5_408744
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1983.408744
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Avinash Dixit, 1978. "The Balance of Trade in a Model of Temporary Equilibrium with Rationing," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 393-404.
    2. Giavazzi, Francesco & Odekon, Mehmet & Wyplosz, Charles, 1982. "Simulating an oil shock with sticky prices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 11-33.
    3. Christopher A. Pissarides, 1978. "Liquidity Considerations in the Theory of Consumption," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 92(2), pages 279-296.
    4. William D. Nordhaus, 1980. "Oil and Economic Performance in industrial Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(2), pages 341-400.
    5. Steigum, Erling, Jr, 1980. " Keynesian and Classical Unemployment in an Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 82(2), pages 147-166.
    6. Philippe Michel, 1982. "Trois facteurs de la crise dans un modèle de croissance contrainte," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(5), pages 807-838.
    7. Ronald Johnson, 1980. "The impact of rising oil prices on the major foreign industrial countries," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 817-824.
    8. Jeffrey Sachs, 1980. "Wages, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Macroeconomic Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 94(4), pages 731-747.
    9. Kaldor, Nicholas [Lord], 1976. "Inflation and Recession in the World Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(344), pages 703-714, December.
    10. J. Peter Neary, 1980. "Nontraded Goods and the Balance of Trade in a Neo-Keynesian Temporary Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 95(3), pages 403-429.
    11. Frenkel, Jacob A & Glyfason, Thorvaldur & Helliwell, John F, 1980. "A Synthesis of Monetary and Keynesian Approaches to Short-Run Balance-of-Payments Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(359), pages 582-592, September.
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