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Les tests de racine unitaire et les modèles Arch : application au taux de chômage

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  • Jamel Trabelsi

Abstract

[fre] Les tests de racine unitaire et les modèles Arch : application au taux de chômage . par Jamel Trabelsi . d'informations sur le marché du travail sont prises en compte. Sur la base des conclusions avancées par Kim et Schmidt, selon lesquelles l'hypothèse nulle de racine unitaire est rejetée en présence d'effets Arch sous certaines conditions (processus intégré et dégénéré), nous élaborons une approche économétrique fondée sur les tests de Dickey et Fuller avec des perturbations Garch. Nous montrons que, pour les principaux pays européens, le taux de chômage est persistant. L'existence d'un tel effet pourrait être expliquée par la persistance des chocs de volatilité. [eng] Unit Root Tests and ARCH Models: Unemployment Rate Applications . by Jamel Trabelsi . We propose to test for the effects of hysteresis, or the persistence of the unemployment rate in the leading industrialised countries. We use a procedure based on Phillips curves that incorporates imperfections in labour market information to justify the possible emergence of such phenomena. We have developed an econometric approach based on Dickey and Fuller Tests with GARCH disturbances on the basis of the conclusions put forward by Kim and Schmidt, which state that the null hypothesis for the unit root is rejected when there are ARCH effects under certain conditions, such as an integrated and degenerated process. We show that the unemployment rate is persistent in the leading European countries. This effect may be explained by the persistence of volatility shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamel Trabelsi, 1997. "Les tests de racine unitaire et les modèles Arch : application au taux de chômage," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 131(5), pages 177-190.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1997_num_131_5_5893
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.1997.5893
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1997.5893
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kim, Kiwhan & Schmidt, Peter, 1993. "Unit root tests with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 287-300, October.
    2. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    6. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    7. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "Stationarity and Persistence in the GARCH(1,1) Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 318-334, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alain Maurin & Roland Craigwell & Sébastien Mathouraparsad, 2011. "Modeling time series of unemployment rates in the Caribbean basin," EcoMod2011 3296, EcoMod.
    2. Alain Maurin & Sébastien Mathouraparsad & Roland Craigwell, 2011. "Unemployment hysteresis in the English-speaking Caribbean: evidence from non-linear models," Post-Print hal-04014790, HAL.
    3. Moïse Sidiropoulos & Jamel Trabelsi, 2001. "Les chocs monétaires et la persistance du taux de chômage," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 148(2), pages 41-47.

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