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Economic Prediction of Medal Wins at the 2014 Winter Olympics

Author

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  • Madeleine Andreff
  • Wladimir Andreff

Abstract

To the best of our knowledge nobody has attempted to elaborate on an economic model for predicting medal wins at the Winter Olympics so far. This contrasts with Summer Olympics for which about thirty studies have estimated economic determinants of sporting performances (among which Andreff, 2001; Ball, 1972; Clarke, 2000; Grimes et al., 1974; Jiang & Xu, 2005; Levine, 1974; Nevill et al., 2002; Novikov & Maximenko, 1972; Pfau, 2006). Some publications have even provided predictions about medal wins at the next Olympic Games (Bernard, 2008; Bernard & Busse, 2004; Hawksworth, 2008; Johnson & Ali, 2004; Johnson and Ali, 2008; Maennig & Wellebrock, 2008; Wang & Jiang, 2008). Our own model has exactly predicted 70% of medal wins at the 2008 Beijing Olympics and correctly (with a small error margin) 88% of the sporting outcomes at these Games (Andreff et al., 2008 & Andreff, 2010). In this paper, we would take stake of the good predictions achieved with our model for Summer Olympics to adapt it in view of forecasting the distribution of medal wins per nation at the 2014 Sochi Winter Games.

Suggested Citation

  • Madeleine Andreff & Wladimir Andreff, 2011. "Economic Prediction of Medal Wins at the 2014 Winter Olympics," Ekonomika a Management, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnleam:v:2011:y:2011:i:2:id:132
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfgang Maennig & Christian Wellbrock, 2008. "Sozio-ökonomische Schätzungen Olympischer Medaillengewinne: Analyse-, Prognose- und Benchmarkmöglichkeiten," Working Papers 020, Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg.
    2. Jiang, Minghua & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2005. "Medals in transition: explaining medal performance and inequality of Chinese provinces," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 158-172, March.
    3. Wladimir Andreff & Sandrine Poupaux, 2007. "The institutional dimension of the sports economy in transition countries," Post-Print halshs-00270047, HAL.
    4. Andrew B. Bernard & Meghan R. Busse, 2004. "Who Wins the Olympic Games: Economic Resources and Medal Totals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 413-417, February.
    5. Wladimir Andreff, 2001. "The Correlation between Economic Underdevelopment and Sport," Post-Print halshs-00274657, HAL.
    6. Robert Hoffmann & Lee Chew Ging & Bala Ramasamy, 2002. "Public policy and olympic success," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(8), pages 545-548.
    7. Daniel K. N. Johnson & Ayfer Ali, 2004. "A Tale of Two Seasons: Participation and Medal Counts at the Summer and Winter Olympic Games," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 85(4), pages 974-993, December.
    8. Wladimir Andreff & Sandrine Poupaux, 2007. "The institutional dimension of the sports economy in transition countries," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00270047, HAL.
    9. Pfau, Wade Donald, 2006. "Predicting the Medal Wins by Country at the 2006 Winter Olympic Games: An Econometrics Approach," MPRA Paper 18829, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    1. Anthony J. Vine, 2016. "Using Pythagorean Expectation to Determine Luck in the KFC Big Bash League," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(3), pages 269-281, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sport; Economics; Olympic Games;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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    1. Jeux olympiques d'hiver in Wikipedia French

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