Economic Prediction of Medal Wins at the 2014 Winter Olympics
To the best of our knowledge nobody has attempted to elaborate on an economic model for predicting medal wins at the Winter Olympics so far. This contrasts with Summer Olympics for which about thirty studies have estimated economic determinants of sporting performances (among which Andreff, 2001; Ball, 1972; Clarke, 2000; Grimes et al., 1974; Jiang & Xu, 2005; Levine, 1974; Nevill et al., 2002; Novikov & Maximenko, 1972; Pfau, 2006). Some publications have even provided predictions about medal wins at the next Olympic Games (Bernard, 2008; Bernard & Busse, 2004; Hawksworth, 2008; Johnson & Ali, 2004; Johnson and Ali, 2008; Maennig & Wellebrock, 2008; Wang & Jiang, 2008). Our own model has exactly predicted 70% of medal wins at the 2008 Beijing Olympics and correctly (with a small error margin) 88% of the sporting outcomes at these Games (Andreff et al., 2008 & Andreff, 2010). In this paper, we would take stake of the good predictions achieved with our model for Summer Olympics to adapt it in view of forecasting the distribution of medal wins per nation at the 2014 Sochi Winter Games.
Volume (Year): 2011 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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- Wolfgang Maennig & Christian Wellbrock, 2008. "Sozio-ökonomische Schätzungen Olympischer Medaillengewinne: Analyse-, Prognose- und Benchmarkmöglichkeiten," Working Papers 020, Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg.
- Jiang, Minghua & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2005. "Medals in transition: explaining medal performance and inequality of Chinese provinces," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 158-172, March.
- Pfau, Wade Donald, 2006. "Predicting the Medal Wins by Country at the 2006 Winter Olympic Games: An Econometrics Approach," MPRA Paper 18829, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Daniel K. N. Johnson & Ayfer Ali, 2004. "A Tale of Two Seasons: Participation and Medal Counts at the Summer and Winter Olympic Games," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 85(4), pages 974-993.
- Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
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Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Andrew B. Bernard & Meghan R. Busse, 2004. "Who Wins the Olympic Games: Economic Resources and Medal Totals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 413-417, February.
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