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Predicting the Medal Wins by Country at the 2006 Winter Olympic Games: An Econometrics Approach

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  • Pfau, Wade Donald

Abstract

Demographic and economic characteristics have been shown to provide important predictive power for determining a country’s success in the Olympic Games. This paper extends such research, providing a set of predictions for the gold medals and total medals each country will win at the 2006 Winter Olympics. We expected Germany to win the most medals, followed by the United States, Norway, Italy, Austria, and Canada. For total medals, the overall correlation between the predictions and the actual results was 0.934. While Germany and the United States did finish in the top two places, there were some surprises as Canada, Austria, and Russia performed better than expected, while Norway and Italy did not live up to expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Pfau, Wade Donald, 2006. "Predicting the Medal Wins by Country at the 2006 Winter Olympic Games: An Econometrics Approach," MPRA Paper 18829, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18829
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18829/2/MPRA_paper_18829.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel K. N. Johnson & Ayfer Ali, 2004. "A Tale of Two Seasons: Participation and Medal Counts at the Summer and Winter Olympic Games," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 85(4), pages 974-993, December.
    2. World Bank, 2004. "World Development Indicators 2004," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13890, December.
    3. Andrew B. Bernard & Meghan R. Busse, 2004. "Who Wins the Olympic Games: Economic Resources and Medal Totals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 413-417, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcus Noland & Kevin Stahler, 2017. "An Old Boys Club No More," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(5), pages 506-536, June.
    2. Madeleine Andreff & Wladimir Andreff, 2011. "Economic Prediction of Medal Wins at the 2014 Winter Olympics," Ekonomika a Management, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(2).
    3. Martin Grancay & Tomas Dudas, 2018. "Olympic Medals, Economy, Geography and Politics from Sydney to Rio," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 22(2), pages 409-441, Spring.
    4. Wladimir Andreff, 2013. "Economic development as major determinant of Olympic medal wins: predicting performances of Russian and Chinese teams at Sochi Games," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00971788, HAL.
    5. Marcus Noland & Kevin Stahler, 2016. "Asian Participation and Performance at the Olympic Games," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 70-90, January.
    6. Javier Otamendi & Luis M. Doncel, 2014. "Medal Shares in Winter Olympic Games by Sport: Socioeconomic Analysis After Vancouver 2010," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 95(2), pages 598-614, June.
    7. Madeleine Andreff & Wladimir Andreff, 2011. "Economic Prediction of Medal Wins at the 2014 Winter Olympics," Working Papers 1116, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.
    8. Wladimir Andreff, 2013. "Economic development as major determinant of Olympic medal wins: predicting performances of Russian and Chinese teams at Sochi Games," Post-Print halshs-00971788, HAL.
    9. Wladimir Andreff, 2012. "Is Hosting the Games Enough to Win? A predictive economic model of medal wins at 2014 Winter Olympics," Post-Print halshs-00794057, HAL.
    10. Wladimir Andreff, 2012. "Is Hosting the Games Enough to Win? A predictive economic model of medal wins at 2014 Winter Olympics," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00794057, HAL.
    11. Marcus Noland, 2016. "Russian Doping in Sports," Working Paper Series WP16-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    12. Madeleine Andreff & Wladimir Andreff & Sandrine Poupaux, 2008. "Les Determinants Economiques de la Performance Olympique," Working Papers 0819, International Association of Sports Economists;North American Association of Sports Economists.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    olympics; medals; predictions; econometrics; winter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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