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Risk formulation mechanism among top global energy companies under large shocks

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  • Xin Qi
  • Tianyu Zhao

Abstract

Taking top global energy companies as the epitome, this paper investigates the risk formulation mechanism of the international energy market under the impact of large shocks. We first use the machine learning method in (Liu and Pun, 2022) to calculate the systematic risk level - EMES - for each energy company. Then use network analysis methods to explore the internal risks due to risk comovement among top energy companies. Finally, a dynamic quantile regression model(DNQR) is used to investigate the external risks occasioned by network effects, individual company characteristics, and market environment. Our research finds that the method we use can capture the risk profile of the energy market under different major shocks. Secondly, we find that the risk contagion in the energy market exhibits geographical clustering characteristics, and certain firm-specific factors and market environmental factors of the company have a significant impact on the tail risk of the company. Our research can provide reference and guidance for risk management in the energy market.

Suggested Citation

  • Xin Qi & Tianyu Zhao, 2025. "Risk formulation mechanism among top global energy companies under large shocks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(5), pages 1-40, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0322462
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0322462
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Powell, J.L., 1988. "Estimation Of Monotonic Regression Models Under Quantile Restrictions," Working papers 8818, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    2. Ouyang, Zi-sheng & Liu, Meng-tian & Huang, Su-su & Yao, Ting, 2022. "Does the source of oil price shocks matter for the systemic risk?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. Nikolaus Hautsch & Julia Schaumburg & Melanie Schienle, 2015. "Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 685-738.
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