Enhancing forecast accuracy using combination methods for the hierarchical time series approach
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0287897
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Tiago Silveira Gontijo & Marcelo Azevedo Costa, 2020. "Forecasting Hierarchical Time Series in Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-17, July.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008.
"Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R,"
Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
- Rob J. Hyndman & Yeasmin Khandakar, 2007. "Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B. & Snyder, Ralph D. & Grose, Simone, 2002.
"A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 439-454.
- Hyndman, R.J. & Koehler, A.B. & Snyder, R.D. & Grose, S., 2000. "A State Space Framework for Automatic Forecasting Using Exponential Smoothing Methods," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/00, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Taylor, James W., 2003. "Exponential smoothing with a damped multiplicative trend," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 715-725.
- Hsiao, Cheng & Wan, Shui Ki, 2014. "Is there an optimal forecast combination?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 294-309.
- Shanika L. Wickramasuriya & George Athanasopoulos & Rob J. Hyndman, 2019.
"Optimal Forecast Reconciliation for Hierarchical and Grouped Time Series Through Trace Minimization,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(526), pages 804-819, April.
- Shanika L. Wickramasuriya & George Athanasopoulos & Rob J. Hyndman, 2017. "Optimal forecast reconciliation for hierarchical and grouped time series through trace minimization," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 22/17, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Yang, Yuhong, 2004. "Combining Forecasting Procedures: Some Theoretical Results," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 176-222, February.
- Athanasopoulos, George & Ahmed, Roman A. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2009.
"Hierarchical forecasts for Australian domestic tourism,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 146-166.
- George Athanasopoulos & Roman A. Ahmed & Rob J. Hyndman, 2007. "Hierarchical forecasts for Australian domestic tourism," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, revised Nov 2007.
- Hibon, Michele & Evgeniou, Theodoros, 2005. "To combine or not to combine: selecting among forecasts and their combinations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 15-24.
- Mariola Pilatowska, 2009. "The Combined Forecasts Using the Akaike Weights," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 9, pages 5-16.
- Hakeem-Ur Rehman & Guohua Wan & Azmat Ullah & Badiea Shaukat, 2019. "Individual and combination approaches to forecasting hierarchical time series with correlated data: an empirical study," Journal of Management Analytics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 231-249, July.
- Ciccarelli, Matteo & Altavilla, Carlo, 2007. "Information combination and forecast (st)ability evidence from vintages of time-series data," Working Paper Series 846, European Central Bank.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Tiago Silveira Gontijo & Marcelo Azevedo Costa, 2020. "Forecasting Hierarchical Time Series in Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-17, July.
- Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Petropoulos, Fotios & Trapero, Juan R., 2014. "Improving forecasting by estimating time series structural components across multiple frequencies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 291-302.
- Marlon Mesquita Lopes Cabreira & Felipe Leite Coelho da Silva & Josiane da Silva Cordeiro & Ronald Miguel Serrano Hernández & Paulo Canas Rodrigues & Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales, 2024. "A Hybrid Approach for Hierarchical Forecasting of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Brazil," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-15, June.
- Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Song, Haiyan & Wu, Doris C., 2011.
"The tourism forecasting competition,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 822-844.
- Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Song, Haiyan & Wu, Doris C., 2011. "The tourism forecasting competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 822-844, July.
- George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman & Haiyan Song & Doris C Wu, 2008. "The tourism forecasting competition," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/08, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, revised Oct 2009.
- Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Saayman, Andrea & Jean-Pierre, Philippe & Provenzano, Davide & Sahli, Mondher & Seetaram, Neelu & Volo, Serena, 2021.
"Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Africa team,"
Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
- Nikolaos Kourentzes & Andrea Saayman & Philippe Jean-Pierre & Davide Provenzano & Mondher Sahli & Neelu Seetaram & Serena Volo, 2021. "Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Africa team," Post-Print hal-03286786, HAL.
- Ulrich Gunter, 2021. "Improving Hotel Room Demand Forecasts for Vienna across Hotel Classes and Forecast Horizons: Single Models and Combination Techniques Based on Encompassing Tests," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-36, November.
- Jeroen Rombouts & Marie Ternes & Ines Wilms, 2024. "Cross-Temporal Forecast Reconciliation at Digital Platforms with Machine Learning," Papers 2402.09033, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
- Fernando, Angeline Gautami & Aw, Eugene Cheng-Xi, 2023. "What do consumers want? A methodological framework to identify determinant product attributes from consumers’ online questions," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
- Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022.
"Forecasting: theory and practice,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
- Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
- Rostami-Tabar, Bahman & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Ducq, Yves & Syntetos, Aris, 2015. "Non-stationary demand forecasting by cross-sectional aggregation," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(PA), pages 297-309.
- Ana Caroline Pinheiro & Paulo Canas Rodrigues, 2024. "Hierarchical Time Series Forecasting of Fire Spots in Brazil: A Comprehensive Approach," Stats, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-24, June.
- Lila, Maurício Franca & Meira, Erick & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz, 2022. "Forecasting unemployment in Brazil: A robust reconciliation approach using hierarchical data," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PB).
- Hakeem‐Ur Rehman & Guohua Wan & Raza Rafique, 2023. "A hybrid approach with step‐size aggregation to forecasting hierarchical time series," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 176-192, January.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Ahmed, Roman A. & Athanasopoulos, George & Shang, Han Lin, 2011.
"Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(9), pages 2579-2589, September.
- Rob J. Hyndman & Roman A. Ahmed & George Athanasopoulos, 2007. "Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- de Silva, Ashton J, 2010. "Forecasting Australian Macroeconomic variables, evaluating innovations state space approaches," MPRA Paper 27411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008.
"Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R,"
Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
- Rob J. Hyndman & Yeasmin Khandakar, 2007. "Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Li, Han & Chen, Hua, 2024. "Hierarchical mortality forecasting with EVT tails: An application to solvency capital requirement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 549-563.
- Zeynep Ozsut Bogar & Askiner Gungor, 2023. "Forecasting Waste Mobile Phone (WMP) Quantity and Evaluating the Potential Contribution to the Circular Economy: A Case Study of Turkey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-38, February.
- Meira, Erick & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & Jeon, Jooyoung, 2021. "Treating and Pruning: New approaches to forecasting model selection and combination using prediction intervals," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 547-568.
- Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0287897. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.