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Institutions and the resource curse: New insights from causal machine learning

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  • Roland Hodler
  • Michael Lechner
  • Paul A Raschky

Abstract

There is a widely held belief that natural resource rents are a blessing if institutions are strong, but a curse if institutions are weak. We use data from 3,800 Sub-Saharan African districts and apply a causal forest estimator to reassess the relationship between institutions and the effects of resource rents. Consistent with this belief, we document that stronger institutions increase the positive effect of the presence of mining activities on economic development and dampen the negative effect of mining activities on conflict. In contrast, we find that the effects of higher world mineral prices on economic development and conflict in mining districts are non-linear and vary little in institutional quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Roland Hodler & Michael Lechner & Paul A Raschky, 2023. "Institutions and the resource curse: New insights from causal machine learning," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(6), pages 1-20, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0284968
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0284968
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    1. Brunnschweiler, Christa N. & Bulte, Erwin H., 2008. "The resource curse revisited and revised: A tale of paradoxes and red herrings," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 248-264, May.
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    3. Hodler, Roland, 2006. "The curse of natural resources in fractionalized countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1367-1386, August.
    4. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 1998. "On Economic Causes of Civil War," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 563-573, October.
    5. Antonio Cabrales & Esther Hauk, 2011. "The Quality of Political Institutions and the Curse of Natural Resources," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 58-88, March.
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    1. Agneman, Gustav & Cappelen, Christoffer & Brandt, Kasper & Sjöberg, David, 2025. "The uneven reach of the state: A novel approach to mapping local state presence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).

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