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Statistical injury prediction for professional sumo wrestlers: Modeling and perspectives

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  • Shuhei Ota
  • Mitsuhiro Kimura

Abstract

In sumo wrestling, a traditional sport in Japan, many wrestlers suffer from injuries through bouts. In 2019, an average of 5.2 out of 42 wrestlers in the top division of professional sumo wrestling were absent in each grand sumo tournament due to injury. As the number of injury occurrences increases, professional sumo wrestling becomes less interesting for sumo fans, requiring systems to prevent future occurrences. Statistical injury prediction is a useful way to communicate the risk of injuries for wrestlers and their coaches. However, the existing statistical methods of injury prediction are not always accurate because they do not consider the long-term effects of injuries. Here, we propose a statistical model of injury occurrences for sumo wrestlers. The proposed model provides the estimated probability of the next potential injury occurrence for a wrestler. In addition, it can support making a risk-based injury prevention scenario for wrestlers. While a previous study modeled injury occurrences by using the Poisson process, we model it by using the Hawkes process to consider the long-term effect of injuries. The proposed model can also be applied to injury prediction for athletes of other sports.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuhei Ota & Mitsuhiro Kimura, 2023. "Statistical injury prediction for professional sumo wrestlers: Modeling and perspectives," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(3), pages 1-20, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0283242
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0283242
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan G. Hawkes, 2018. "Hawkes processes and their applications to finance: a review," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 193-198, February.
    2. Helmut M. Dietl & Markus Lang & Stephan Werner, 2010. "Corruption in Professional Sumo: An Update on the Study of Duggan and Levitt," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 11(4), pages 383-396, August.
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