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The Use of Ecological Niche Modeling to Infer Potential Risk Areas of Snakebite in the Mexican State of Veracruz

Author

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  • Carlos Yañez-Arenas
  • A Townsend Peterson
  • Pierre Mokondoko
  • Octavio Rojas-Soto
  • Enrique Martínez-Meyer

Abstract

Background: Many authors have claimed that snakebite risk is associated with human population density, human activities, and snake behavior. Here we analyzed whether environmental suitability of vipers can be used as an indicator of snakebite risk. We tested several hypotheses to explain snakebite incidence, through the construction of models incorporating both environmental suitability and socioeconomic variables in Veracruz, Mexico. Methodology/Principal Findings: Ecological niche modeling (ENM) was used to estimate potential geographic and ecological distributions of nine viper species' in Veracruz. We calculated the distance to the species' niche centroid (DNC); this distance may be associated with a prediction of abundance. We found significant inverse relationships between snakebites and DNCs of common vipers (Crotalus simus and Bothrops asper), explaining respectively 15% and almost 35% of variation in snakebite incidence. Additionally, DNCs for these two vipers, in combination with marginalization of human populations, accounted for 76% of variation in incidence. Conclusions/Significance: Our results suggest that niche modeling and niche-centroid distance approaches can be used to mapping distributions of environmental suitability for venomous snakes; combining this ecological information with socioeconomic factors may help with inferring potential risk areas for snakebites, since hospital data are often biased (especially when incidences are low).

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Yañez-Arenas & A Townsend Peterson & Pierre Mokondoko & Octavio Rojas-Soto & Enrique Martínez-Meyer, 2014. "The Use of Ecological Niche Modeling to Infer Potential Risk Areas of Snakebite in the Mexican State of Veracruz," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(6), pages 1-9, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0100957
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0100957
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Erik Hansson & Steven Cuadra & Anna Oudin & Kim de Jong & Emilie Stroh & Kjell Torén & Maria Albin, 2010. "Mapping Snakebite Epidemiology in Nicaragua – Pitfalls and Possible Solutions," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(11), pages 1-9, November.
    2. Christopher J. Raxworthy & Enrique Martinez-Meyer & Ned Horning & Ronald A. Nussbaum & Gregory E. Schneider & Miguel A. Ortega-Huerta & A. Townsend Peterson, 2003. "Predicting distributions of known and unknown reptile species in Madagascar," Nature, Nature, vol. 426(6968), pages 837-841, December.
    3. Barve, Narayani & Barve, Vijay & Jiménez-Valverde, Alberto & Lira-Noriega, Andrés & Maher, Sean P. & Peterson, A. Townsend & Soberón, Jorge & Villalobos, Fabricio, 2011. "The crucial role of the accessible area in ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(11), pages 1810-1819.
    4. Robert A Harrison & Adam Hargreaves & Simon C Wagstaff & Brian Faragher & David G Lalloo, 2009. "Snake Envenoming: A Disease of Poverty," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(12), pages 1-6, December.
    5. Peterson, A. Townsend & Papeş, Monica & Soberón, Jorge, 2008. "Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 63-72.
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    1. Carlos Yañez-Arenas & A. Townsend Peterson & Karla Rodríguez-Medina & Narayani Barve, 2016. "Mapping current and future potential snakebite risk in the new world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 697-711, February.
    2. Carolina Ureta & Carlos Martorell & Ángela P Cuervo-Robayo & María C Mandujano & Enrique Martínez-Meyer, 2018. "Inferring space from time: On the relationship between demography and environmental suitability in the desert plant O. rastrera," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-20, August.
    3. Maria Cristina Schneider & Kyung-duk Min & Patricia Nájera Hamrick & Lucia R Montebello & Tani Maria Ranieri & Lucia Mardini & Volney M Camara & Ronir Raggio Luiz & Bernhard Liese & Myriam Vuckovic & , 2021. "Overview of snakebite in Brazil: Possible drivers and a tool for risk mapping," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-18, January.
    4. Sillero, Neftalí & Arenas-Castro, Salvador & Enriquez‐Urzelai, Urtzi & Vale, Cândida Gomes & Sousa-Guedes, Diana & Martínez-Freiría, Fernando & Real, Raimundo & Barbosa, A.Márcia, 2021. "Want to model a species niche? A step-by-step guideline on correlative ecological niche modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 456(C).
    5. Carlos Yañez-Arenas & A. Townsend Peterson & Karla Rodríguez-Medina & Narayani Barve, 2016. "Mapping current and future potential snakebite risk in the new world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 697-711, February.
    6. Daniel Zacarias & Rafael Loyola, 2019. "Climate change impacts on the distribution of venomous snakes and snakebite risk in Mozambique," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 195-207, January.

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