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Constraints on interpretation of ecological niche models by limited environmental ranges on calibration areas

Author

Listed:
  • Owens, Hannah L.
  • Campbell, Lindsay P.
  • Dornak, L. Lynnette
  • Saupe, Erin E.
  • Barve, Narayani
  • Soberón, Jorge
  • Ingenloff, Kate
  • Lira-Noriega, Andrés
  • Hensz, Christopher M.
  • Myers, Corinne E.
  • Peterson, A. Townsend

Abstract

Correlational models of species’ ecological niches are commonly used to transfer model rules onto other sets of conditions to evaluate species’ distributional potential. As with any model fitting exercise, however, interpretation of model predictions outside the range of the independent variables on which models were calibrated is perilous, herein denoted as strict extrapolation to distinguish from extrapolation onto novel combinations of variables. We use novel visualization techniques to characterize model response surfaces for several niche modeling algorithms for a virtual species (wherein the truth is known) and for two transfer-based studies published by one of our group. All modeling algorithms for each species showed strict extrapolation, such that biologically unrealistic response surfaces were reconstructed. We discuss the implications of these results for calibration and interpretation of niche models and analysis of ecological niche evolution. We present Mobility-Oriented Parity (MOP), a modification and extension of the Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface (MESS) metric currently in use, as a means of both quantifying environmental similarity between calibration and transfer regions and highlighting regions in geographic space where strict extrapolation occurs.

Suggested Citation

  • Owens, Hannah L. & Campbell, Lindsay P. & Dornak, L. Lynnette & Saupe, Erin E. & Barve, Narayani & Soberón, Jorge & Ingenloff, Kate & Lira-Noriega, Andrés & Hensz, Christopher M. & Myers, Corinne E. &, 2013. "Constraints on interpretation of ecological niche models by limited environmental ranges on calibration areas," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 263(C), pages 10-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:263:y:2013:i:c:p:10-18
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.04.011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Santika, Truly & Hutchinson, Michael F., 2009. "The effect of species response form on species distribution model prediction and inference," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(19), pages 2365-2379.
    2. Saupe, E.E. & Barve, V. & Myers, C.E. & Soberón, J. & Barve, N. & Hensz, C.M. & Peterson, A.T. & Owens, H.L. & Lira-Noriega, A., 2012. "Variation in niche and distribution model performance: The need for a priori assessment of key causal factors," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 237, pages 11-22.
    3. Peterson, A. Townsend & Papeş, Monica & Soberón, Jorge, 2008. "Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 63-72.
    4. Barve, Narayani & Barve, Vijay & Jiménez-Valverde, Alberto & Lira-Noriega, Andrés & Maher, Sean P. & Peterson, A. Townsend & Soberón, Jorge & Villalobos, Fabricio, 2011. "The crucial role of the accessible area in ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(11), pages 1810-1819.
    5. Platts, Philip J. & McClean, Colin J. & Lovett, Jon C. & Marchant, Rob, 2008. "Predicting tree distributions in an East African biodiversity hotspot: model selection, data bias and envelope uncertainty," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 121-134.
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    6. Carlos Yañez-Arenas & A. Townsend Peterson & Karla Rodríguez-Medina & Narayani Barve, 2016. "Mapping current and future potential snakebite risk in the new world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 697-711, February.
    7. Marianna V. P. Simões & Hanieh Saeedi & Marlon E. Cobos & Angelika Brandt, 2021. "Environmental matching reveals non-uniform range-shift patterns in benthic marine Crustacea," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 1-20, October.
    8. Diederik Strubbe & Laura Jiménez & A. Márcia Barbosa & Amy J. S. Davis & Luc Lens & Carsten Rahbek, 2023. "Mechanistic models project bird invasions with accuracy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    9. Cesc Gordó-Vilaseca & Mark John Costello & Marta Coll & Alexander Jüterbock & Henning Reiss & Fabrice Stephenson, 2024. "Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    10. Zhu, Gengping & Fan, Jingyu & Peterson, A. Townsend, 2021. "Cautions in weighting individual ecological niche models in ensemble forecasting," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 448(C).
    11. Yañez-Arenas, Carlos & Guevara, Roger & Martínez-Meyer, Enrique & Mandujano, Salvador & Lobo, Jorge M., 2014. "Predicting species’ abundances from occurrence data: Effects of sample size and bias," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 294(C), pages 36-41.
    12. Carlos Yañez-Arenas & A. Townsend Peterson & Karla Rodríguez-Medina & Narayani Barve, 2016. "Mapping current and future potential snakebite risk in the new world," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 697-711, February.
    13. Xueye Wang & Gaëlle Bocksberger & Mimi Arandjelovic & Anthony Agbor & Samuel Angedakin & Floris Aubert & Emmanuel Ayuk Ayimisin & Emma Bailey & Donatienne Barubiyo & Mattia Bessone & René Bobe & Matth, 2024. "Strontium isoscape of sub-Saharan Africa allows tracing origins of victims of the transatlantic slave trade," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    14. Ramos, Rodrigo Soares & Kumar, Lalit & Shabani, Farzin & Picanço, Marcelo Coutinho, 2019. "Risk of spread of tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV) in tomato crops under various climate change scenarios," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 524-535.
    15. Jiménez, Laura & Soberón, Jorge & Christen, J. Andrés & Soto, Desireé, 2019. "On the problem of modeling a fundamental niche from occurrence data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 397(C), pages 74-83.
    16. Fourcade, Yoan, 2021. "Fine-tuning niche models matters in invasion ecology. A lesson from the land planarian Obama nungara," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 457(C).

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