IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0040961.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Metric of Influential Spreading during Contagion Dynamics through the Air Transportation Network

Author

Listed:
  • Christos Nicolaides
  • Luis Cueto-Felgueroso
  • Marta C González
  • Ruben Juanes

Abstract

The spread of infectious diseases at the global scale is mediated by long-range human travel. Our ability to predict the impact of an outbreak on human health requires understanding the spatiotemporal signature of early-time spreading from a specific location. Here, we show that network topology, geography, traffic structure and individual mobility patterns are all essential for accurate predictions of disease spreading. Specifically, we study contagion dynamics through the air transportation network by means of a stochastic agent-tracking model that accounts for the spatial distribution of airports, detailed air traffic and the correlated nature of mobility patterns and waiting-time distributions of individual agents. From the simulation results and the empirical air-travel data, we formulate a metric of influential spreading––the geographic spreading centrality––which accounts for spatial organization and the hierarchical structure of the network traffic, and provides an accurate measure of the early-time spreading power of individual nodes.

Suggested Citation

  • Christos Nicolaides & Luis Cueto-Felgueroso & Marta C González & Ruben Juanes, 2012. "A Metric of Influential Spreading during Contagion Dynamics through the Air Transportation Network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(7), pages 1-10, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0040961
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0040961
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0040961
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0040961&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0040961?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paolo Bajardi & Chiara Poletto & Jose J Ramasco & Michele Tizzoni & Vittoria Colizza & Alessandro Vespignani, 2011. "Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, January.
    2. Jukka-Pekka Onnela & Samuel Arbesman & Marta C González & Albert-László Barabási & Nicholas A Christakis, 2011. "Geographic Constraints on Social Network Groups," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(4), pages 1-7, April.
    3. D. Brockmann & L. Hufnagel & T. Geisel, 2006. "The scaling laws of human travel," Nature, Nature, vol. 439(7075), pages 462-465, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dube, Kaitano & Nhamo, Godwell & Chikodzi, David, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic and prospects for recovery of the global aviation industry," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Christos Nicolaides & Demetris Avraam & Luis Cueto‐Felgueroso & Marta C. González & Ruben Juanes, 2020. "Hand‐Hygiene Mitigation Strategies Against Global Disease Spreading through the Air Transportation Network," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 723-740, April.
    3. Chung, Lap Hang, 2015. "Impact of pandemic control over airport economics: Reconciling public health with airport business through a streamlined approach in pandemic control," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 44, pages 42-53.
    4. B. V. Nikitin & N. Yu. Zamyatina, 2023. "Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Russia: Regional Projection," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 271-286, June.
    5. Christos Ellinas & Christos Nicolaides & Naoki Masuda, 2022. "Mitigation strategies against cascading failures within a project activity network," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 383-400, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Wenjun & Pan, Lin & Yuan, Ning & Zhang, Sen & Liu, Dong, 2015. "A comparative analysis of intra-city human mobility by taxi," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 420(C), pages 134-147.
    2. Csáji, Balázs Cs. & Browet, Arnaud & Traag, V.A. & Delvenne, Jean-Charles & Huens, Etienne & Van Dooren, Paul & Smoreda, Zbigniew & Blondel, Vincent D., 2013. "Exploring the mobility of mobile phone users," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(6), pages 1459-1473.
    3. Ferreira, A.S. & Raposo, E.P. & Viswanathan, G.M. & da Luz, M.G.E., 2012. "The influence of the environment on Lévy random search efficiency: Fractality and memory effects," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(11), pages 3234-3246.
    4. Miguel Picornell & Tomás Ruiz & Maxime Lenormand & José Ramasco & Thibaut Dubernet & Enrique Frías-Martínez, 2015. "Exploring the potential of phone call data to characterize the relationship between social network and travel behavior," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 647-668, July.
    5. Moshe B Hoshen & Anthony H Burton & Themis J V Bowcock, 2007. "Simulating disease transmission dynamics at a multi-scale level," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(1), pages 26-34.
    6. Maxime Lenormand & Miguel Picornell & Oliva G Cantú-Ros & Antònia Tugores & Thomas Louail & Ricardo Herranz & Marc Barthelemy & Enrique Frías-Martínez & José J Ramasco, 2014. "Cross-Checking Different Sources of Mobility Information," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(8), pages 1-10, August.
    7. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2021. "Welfare costs of COVID‐19: Evidence from US counties," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 826-848, September.
    8. Huang, Feihu & Qiao, Shaojie & Peng, Jian & Guo, Bing & Xiong, Xi & Han, Nan, 2019. "A movement model for air passengers based on trip purpose," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 798-808.
    9. Shanshan Wan & Zhuo Chen & Cheng Lyu & Ruofan Li & Yuntao Yue & Ying Liu, 2022. "Research on disaster information dissemination based on social sensor networks," International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks, , vol. 18(3), pages 15501329221, March.
    10. Varga, Levente & Tóth, Géza & Néda, Zoltán, 2017. "An improved radiation model and its applicability for understanding commuting patterns in Hungary," MPRA Paper 76806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Wang, Weihong & Chen, MingMing & Min, Yong & Jin, Xiaogang, 2016. "Structural diversity effects of multilayer networks on the threshold of interacting epidemics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 443(C), pages 254-262.
    12. Magdziarz, M. & Scheffler, H.P. & Straka, P. & Zebrowski, P., 2015. "Limit theorems and governing equations for Lévy walks," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 125(11), pages 4021-4038.
    13. Chaogui Kang & Yu Liu & Diansheng Guo & Kun Qin, 2015. "A Generalized Radiation Model for Human Mobility: Spatial Scale, Searching Direction and Trip Constraint," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(11), pages 1-11, November.
    14. Medino, Ary V. & Lopes, Sílvia R.C. & Morgado, Rafael & Dorea, Chang C.Y., 2012. "Generalized Langevin equation driven by Lévy processes: A probabilistic, numerical and time series based approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(3), pages 572-581.
    15. Li, Ze-Tao & Nie, Wei-Peng & Cai, Shi-Min & Zhao, Zhi-Dan & Zhou, Tao, 2023. "Exploring the topological characteristics of urban trip networks based on taxi trajectory data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 609(C).
    16. Liu, Jian-Guo & Li, Ren-De & Guo, Qiang & Zhang, Yi-Cheng, 2018. "Collective iteration behavior for online social networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 499(C), pages 490-497.
    17. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2021. "What Drove the First Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic? The Role of Institutions and Leader Attributes," MPRA Paper 110563, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Eugenio Valdano & Chiara Poletto & Armando Giovannini & Diana Palma & Lara Savini & Vittoria Colizza, 2015. "Predicting Epidemic Risk from Past Temporal Contact Data," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(3), pages 1-19, March.
    19. Bilazeroğlu, Ş. & Göktepe, S. & Merdan, H., 2023. "Effects of the random walk and the maturation period in a diffusive predator–prey system with two discrete delays," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    20. Chen, Ning & Zhu, Xuzhen & Chen, Yanyan, 2019. "Information spreading on complex networks with general group distribution," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 671-676.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0040961. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.