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Spatiotemporal analysis of within-country imported malaria in Brazilian municipalities, 2004–2022

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  • Nicholas J Arisco
  • Cassio Peterka
  • Marcia C Castro

Abstract

Human mobility has challenged malaria elimination efforts and remains difficult to routinely track. In Brazil, administrative records from the Ministry of Health allow monitoring of mobility locally and internationally. Although most imported malaria cases are between municipalities in Brazil, detailed knowledge of patterns of mobility is limited. Here, we address this gap by quantifying and describing patterns of malaria-infected individuals across the Amazon. We used network analysis, spatial clustering, and linear models to quantify and characterize the movement of malaria cases in Brazil between 2004 and 2022. We identified sources and sinks of malaria within and between states. We found that between-state movement of cases has become proportionally more important than within-state, that source clusters persisted longer than sink clusters, that movement of cases into sinks was seasonal while movement out of sources was not, and that importation is an impediment for subnational elimination in many municipalities. We elucidate the vast travel networks of malaria infected individuals that characterize the Amazon region. Uncovering patterns of malaria case mobility is vital for effective microstratification within Brazil. Our results have implications for intervention stratification across Brazil in line with the country’s goal of malaria elimination by 2035.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas J Arisco & Cassio Peterka & Marcia C Castro, 2024. "Spatiotemporal analysis of within-country imported malaria in Brazilian municipalities, 2004–2022," PLOS Global Public Health, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(7), pages 1-17, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pgph00:0003452
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0003452
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:plo:pone00:0130773 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Marcia C Castro & Andres Baeza & Cláudia Torres Codeço & Zulma M Cucunubá & Ana Paula Dal’Asta & Giulio A De Leo & Andrew P Dobson & Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar & Raquel Martins Lana & Rachel Lowe & Anto, 2019. "Development, environmental degradation, and disease spread in the Brazilian Amazon," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(11), pages 1-8, November.
    3. repec:plo:pone00:0009245 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Andersen,Lykke E. & Granger,Clive W. J. & Reis,Eustaquio J. & Weinhold,Diana & Wunder,Sven, 2002. "The Dynamics of Deforestation and Economic Growth in the Brazilian Amazon," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521811972, Enero-Abr.
    5. Patrícia Feitosa Souza & Diego Ricardo Xavier & Martha Cecilia Suarez Mutis & Jurema Corrêa da Mota & Paulo Cesar Peiter & Vanderlei Pascoal de Matos & Mônica de Avelar Figueiredo Mafra Magalhães & Ch, 2019. "Spatial spread of malaria and economic frontier expansion in the Brazilian Amazon," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-25, June.
    6. Queiroz, Julia & Gasparinetti, Pedro & Bakker, Leonardo B. & Lobo, Felipe & Nagel, Gustavo, 2022. "Socioeconomic cost of dredge boat gold mining in the Tapajós basin, eastern Amazon," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Felana Angella Ihantamalala & Vincent Herbreteau & Feno M. J. Rakotoarimanana & Jean Marius Rakotondramanga & Simon Cauchemez & Bienvenue Rahoilijaona & Gwenaëlle Pennober & Caroline O. Buckee & Chris, 2018. "Estimating sources and sinks of malaria parasites in Madagascar," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, December.
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