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Urbanisation and Crime: A Case Study of Pakistan

  • Hafiz Hanzla Jalil

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)

  • Muhammad Mazhar Iqbal

    (Department of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad)

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    From the economic point of view, urbanisation is good as it facilitates achievement of economies of scale and thus promotes growth of industries and development in the economy. However, from the social point of view, urbanisation encourages crime as the rate of crime is higher in large cities and in urbanised areas. Several explanations of the phenomenon have been provided in the literature but none of these provide a sound analysis of the linkage between urbanisation and crime. The objective of this paper is to explore this linkage. We use the Johansen Cointegration method, and the period of analysis is 1964–2008. Besides urbanisation, four other socio-economic determinants, which may influence crime, are also analysed. These are unemployment, inflation, income inequality, and education. The results show a long-run positive and unique relationship between urbanisation and crime in Pakistan. Since migration to urban areas is mostly caused by a search for jobs, the policy-makers should plan for more industrial centres in the rural areas. These industrial centres will provide employment and, consequently, urbanisation and crime would be better controlled

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    File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2010/Volume4/741-755.pdf
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    Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

    Volume (Year): 49 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 741–755

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    Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:49:y:2010:i:4:p:741-755
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    1. Edward L. Glaeser & Bruce Sacerdote, 1996. "Why Is There More Crime in Cities?," NBER Working Papers 5430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lance Lochner, 2003. "Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System," NBER Working Papers 9474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Gaviria, Alejandro & Pages, Carmen, 2002. "Patterns of crime victimization in Latin American cities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 181-203, February.
    4. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-74, Summer.
    5. Gumus, Erdal, 2003. "Crime in Urban Areas: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 42106, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1973. "Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 521-65, May-June.
    7. Witte, Ann Dryden, 1980. "Estimating the Economic Model of Crime with Individual Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 57-84, February.
    8. Gary S. Becker, 1968. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 169.
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