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A semi-Markov approach for modelling asset deterioration

Author

Listed:
  • M Black

    (University of Salford)

  • A T Brint

    (University of Salford)

  • J R Brailsford

    (EA Technology)

Abstract

Considerable benefits have been gained from using Markov decision processes to select condition-based maintenance policies for the asset management of infrastructure systems. A key part of the method is using a Markov process to model the deterioration of condition. However, the Markov model assumes constant transition probabilities irrespective of how long an item has been in a state. The semi-Markov model relaxes this assumption. This paper describes how to fit a semi-Markov model to observed condition data and the results achieved on two data sets. Good results were obtained even where there was only 1 year of observation data.

Suggested Citation

  • M Black & A T Brint & J R Brailsford, 2005. "A semi-Markov approach for modelling asset deterioration," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(11), pages 1241-1249, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:56:y:2005:i:11:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601967
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601967
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kamal Golabi & Ram B. Kulkarni & George B. Way, 1982. "A Statewide Pavement Management System," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 12(6), pages 5-21, December.
    2. A H Christer, 1999. "Developments in delay time analysis for modelling plant maintenance," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 50(11), pages 1120-1137, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. A Brint & J Bridgeman & M Black, 2009. "The rise, current position and future direction of asset management in utility industries," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(1), pages 106-113, May.
    2. Li Li & Yu Lu & Miaojuan Peng, 2022. "Deterioration Model for Reinforced Concrete Bridge Girders Based on Survival Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(23), pages 1-16, November.

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