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Do Exposures to Sagging Real Estate, Subprime, or Conduits Abroad Lead to Contraction and Flight to Quality in Bank Lending at Home?

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  • Steven Ongena
  • Günseli Tümer–Alkan
  • Natalja von Westernhagen

Abstract

We investigate how differential exposures by German banks to the US real-estate market affect domestic lending in Germany when home prices started to decline in the USA. We find that banks with an exposure to the US real-estate sector and to conduits shift their domestic lending to industry–region combinations with lower insolvency ratios following a decrease in US home prices. These banks also contract their lending to German firms more than banks that do not have such exposure. We mainly document that possible losses abroad shift bank lending at home where the size of the effect depends on the type and the degree of exposure the bank has.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Ongena & Günseli Tümer–Alkan & Natalja von Westernhagen, 2018. "Do Exposures to Sagging Real Estate, Subprime, or Conduits Abroad Lead to Contraction and Flight to Quality in Bank Lending at Home?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(4), pages 1335-1373.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:22:y:2018:i:4:p:1335-1373.
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    3. Galina Hale & Tümer Kapan & Camelia Minoiu & Philip Strahan, 2020. "Shock Transmission Through Cross-Border Bank Lending: Credit and Real Effects," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(10), pages 4839-4882.
    4. Ricardo Correa & Julian di Giovanni & Linda S. Goldberg & Camelia Minoiu, 2023. "Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending," NBER Working Papers 31860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Dorina Clichici & Victoria Iordachi, 2017. "Volatility of Cross-Border Financial Flows and Policy Responses," Global Economic Observer, "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences;Institute for World Economy of the Romanian Academy, vol. 5(1), June.
    6. Olivier De Jonghe & Hans Dewachter & Klaas Mulier & Steven Ongena & Glenn Schepens, 2020. "Some Borrowers Are More Equal than Others: Bank Funding Shocks and Credit Reallocation [A theory of systemic risk and design of prudential bank regulation]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-43.
    7. Gündüz, Yalin & Ongena, Steven & Tümer-Alkan, Günseli & Yu, Yuejuan, 2025. "CDS and credit: The effect of the bangs on credit insurance, lending and hedging," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Bednarek, Peter & Dinger, Valeriya & te Kaat, Daniel Marcel & von Westernhagen, Natalja, 2020. "Central bank funding and credit risk-taking," Discussion Papers 36/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Minetti, Raoul & Murro, Pierluigi & Peruzzi, Valentina, 2025. "Out of sight, out of mind? Global value chains and credit allocation during a financial crisis," MPRA Paper 124369, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Niţoi, Mihai & Clichici, Dorina & Moagăr-Poladian, Simona, 2019. "The effects of prudential policies on bank leverage and insolvency risk in Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 148-160.
    11. Paul Pelzl & María Teresa, 2023. "Capital Regulations and the Management of Credit Commitments during Crisis Times," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(5), pages 1781-1821.
    12. Natalia Tente & Natalja Von Westernhagen & Ulf Slopek, 2019. "M‐PRESS‐CreditRisk: Microprudential and Macroprudential Capital Requirements for Credit Risk under Systemic Stress," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(7), pages 1923-1961, October.
    13. Ozan Güler & Mike Mariathasan & Klaas Mulier & Nejat G. Okatan, 2021. "The real effects of banks' corporate credit supply: A literature review," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1252-1285, July.
    14. Gong, Di & Xu, Jiajun & Yan, Jianye, 2023. "National development banks and loan contract terms: Evidence from syndicated loans," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial sector; Bank lending; Real-estate exposure; Subprime; Conduits;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General

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    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Do Exposures to Sagging Real Estate, Subprime, or Conduits Abroad Lead to Contraction and Flight to Quality in Bank Lending at Home? (Review of Finance 2018) in ReplicationWiki

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