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Culture and the Historical Fertility Transition

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  • Brian Beach
  • W Walker Hanlon

Abstract

The historical transition to a low fertility regime was central for long-run growth, but what caused it? Existing economic explanations largely focus on the economic incentives to limit fertility. This article presents new evidence highlighting the importance of cultural forces as a complementary driver of the fertility transition. We leverage a sharp change in fertility in Britain in 1877 and document large synchronized declines in fertility among culturally British households residing outside of Britain, in Canada, the US, and South Africa, relative to their non-British neighbours. We propose a plausible catalyst for the change: the famous Bradlaugh–Besant trial of 1877.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Beach & W Walker Hanlon, 2023. "Culture and the Historical Fertility Transition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(4), pages 1669-1700.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:90:y:2023:i:4:p:1669-1700.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdac059
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    Cited by:

    1. Lahey, Joanna N. & Wanamaker, Marianne H., 2025. "Effects of restrictive abortion legislation on cohort mortality evidence from 19th century law variation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    2. Xiao, Shukang & Liang, Pinghan, 2025. "Marx meets Weber: The dissolution of communes and the rise of religious public goods in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    3. Güneş Aşık & Naci H. Mocan, 2024. "The Signaling Value of Government Action: The Effect of Istanbul Convention on Female Murders," NBER Working Papers 33169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hong Li & Jiayi Liao, 2025. "Cultural Diversity and Mass Entrepreneurship: Evidence from China Household Finance Survey and Dialect Data," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(6), pages 17438-17470, December.
    5. Chang, Dongfeng & Dong, Huimin & He, Feng & Zhang, Jingjing, 2024. "Energy poverty and fertility intentions: An empirical analysis from household multidimensional perspectives," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    6. Elizabeth Brainerd & Olga Malkova, 2026. "How religion mediates the fertility response to maternity benefits," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 64(2), pages 508-532, April.
    7. Seung‐Hun Chung & Ahmad Shah Mobariz, 2025. "Harmony in diplomacy, convergence in choices: Low fertility diffusion through Sino‐Korean normalization," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 91(3), pages 1048-1068, January.
    8. Maria De Paola & Roberto Nisticò & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2024. "Workplace Peer Effects in Fertility Decisions," CSEF Working Papers 714, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 01 Sep 2025.
    9. Mickael Melki & Hillel Rapoport & Enrico Spolaore & Romain Wacziarg, 2024. "Cultural Remittances and Modern Fertility," PSE Working Papers halshs-04721328, HAL.
    10. Yang, Yumeng & Li, Yunong & Sheng, Han & Zhou, Mao, 2026. "Producing more, reproducing less: The demographic costs of China's export success," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    11. Seung-Hun Chung & Neha Deopa & Kritika Saxena & Lyman Stone, 2025. "Religiously inspired baby boom: evidence from Georgia," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(1), pages 1-31, March.
    12. Beach, Brian & Hanlon, W. Walker, 2023. "Historical newspaper data: A researcher’s guide," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    13. Ciccarelli, Carlo & Fenske, James & Martí Henneberg, Jordi, 2023. "Railways and the European Fertility Transition," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 686, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).

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