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Terrorism and fertility: evidence for a causal influence of terrorism on fertility

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  • Claude Berrebi
  • Jordan Ostwald

Abstract

Using a panel data set of 170 countries and terrorism data from 1970 to 2007, we find that terrorist attacks decrease fertility as measured by both total fertility rates and crude birth rates. Furthermore, by using a novel instrumental variable approach, we identify a causal link and address endogeneity concerns related to the possibility of stress, caused by rising birth rates or transitioning demographics, affecting terrorism. We find that on average, terrorist attacks decrease fertility, reducing both the expected number of children a woman has over her lifetime and the number of live births occurring during each year. The results are statistically significant and robust across a multitude of model specifications, varying measures of fertility, and differing measures of terrorism.

Suggested Citation

  • Claude Berrebi & Jordan Ostwald, 2015. "Terrorism and fertility: evidence for a causal influence of terrorism on fertility," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 63-82.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:67:y:2015:i:1:p:63-82.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpu042
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Torrisi, Orsola, 2024. "Violent instability and modern contraception: Evidence from Mali," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    2. Brian C. Thiede & Matthew Hancock & Ahmed Kodouda & James Piazza, 2020. "Exposure to Armed Conflict and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 2113-2141, December.
    3. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler & Javed Younas, 2018. "Trade and terrorism," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 55(5), pages 656-670, September.
    4. Meierrieks, Daniel & Krieger, Tim & Klotzbücher, Valentin, 2021. "Class Warfare: Political Exclusion of the Poor and the Roots of Social-Revolutionary Terrorism, 1860-1950," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 32(6), pages 681-697.
    5. Magda Tsaneva & Pinar Mine Gunes, 2020. "The effect of violent crime on teenage pregnancy in Mexico," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 141-164, March.
    6. Foubert, Killian & Ruyssen, Ilse, 2024. "Global migration and the role of terrorist attacks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 507-530.
    7. Meng-Wen Tsou & Jin-Tan Liu & James K. Hammitt & Chyi-Horng Lu & Szu-Yu Zoe Kao, 2020. "The effect of prenatal exposure to radiation on birth outcomes: exploiting a natural experiment in Taiwan," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 71(3), pages 379-403, July.
    8. Meierrieks, Daniel & Schneider, Friedrich, 2021. "Terrorism and international economic policy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    9. Olfa Frini & Christophe Muller, 2021. "Fertility Regulation and Family Influence in Tunisia," AMSE Working Papers 2113, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Aug 2021.
    10. Olfa Frini & Christophe Muller, 2021. "Revisiting Fertility Regulation and Family Ties in Tunisia," Working Papers halshs-03153584, HAL.
    11. Young-Il Kim & Dongyoung Kim, 2016. "Mental Health Cost Of Terrorism: Study Of The Charlie Hebdo Attack In Paris," Working Papers 1613, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    12. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Gerel Oyun & Javed Younas, 2019. "Terrorism and subjective financial well-being: micro-level evidence from Pakistan," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 178(3), pages 493-512, March.
    13. Zheng, Mingbo & Feng, Gen-Fu & Jang, Chyi-Lu & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "Terrorism and green innovation in renewable energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).

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