IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/erevae/v16y1989i1p113-27.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The CAP in 1995--A Qualitative Approach to Policy Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Fearne, Andrew

Abstract

The paper describes how long-term forecasts of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) can be generated using qualitative information. Following an explanation of the methodology adopted, the discussion focuses on the analysis of a Delphi survey on the future of the CAP, carried out between January and August, 1986. The results illustrate a number of contrasting characteristics typical of Delphi surveys, in particular, the problems associated with communicating complex and often complicated concepts and the trade-off which exists between accuracy and efficiency in conducting a survey of this kind. The forecasts cover a number of issues and include probability estimates of specific events (renationalization of the CAP, enlargement of the EC, introduction of majority voting, increase in "own resources," maintenance of dairy quotas), the identification of key issues and future policy developments, and numerical forecasts of budgetary expenditure, farming incomes and the level of price support in 1995. Copyright 1989 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Fearne, Andrew, 1989. "The CAP in 1995--A Qualitative Approach to Policy Forecasting," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 16(1), pages 113-127.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:16:y:1989:i:1:p:113-27
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carl GAIGNÉ & Cathie LAROCHE DUPRAZ & Alan MATTHEWS, 2015. "Thirty years of European research on international trade in food and agricultural products," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 96(1), pages 91-130.
    2. Bouhaddane, Maria & Mili, Samir, 2018. "A Forecast of Internationalization Strategies for the Spanish Olive Oil Value Chain," 2018 International European Forum (163rd EAAE Seminar), February 5-9, 2018, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 276854, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    3. Federico Martínez-Carrasco Pleite & José Colino Sueiras, 2024. "Rural Depopulation in Spain: A Delphi Analysis on the Need for the Reorientation of Public Policies," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-17, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:16:y:1989:i:1:p:113-27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.