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Unemployment at risk: the policy determinants of labour market exposure to economic shocks
[Labor market institutions and the business cycle: unemployment rigidities vs wage rigidities]

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  • Alain de Serres
  • Fabrice Murtin

Abstract

SummaryThis paper examines the vulnerability of labour markets to adverse economic shocks. We define labour market exposure as the cumulated amount of excess unemployment generated by a shock before unemployment returns to steady-state. We use a panel of 19 countries covering the period 1985–2010 to assess the influence of labour market policies on labour market exposure, which is also calculated country by country. We find that less generous unemployment insurance, more active labour market policies or a lower minimum wage imply a trade-off between average unemployment and labour market exposure, as they help low-skilled workers to get out of unemployment at the cost of increased vulnerability to adverse shocks. On the other hand, reducing the tax wedge is conducive to both lower steady-state unemployment and labour market exposure.— Alain de Serres and Fabrice Murtin

Suggested Citation

  • Alain de Serres & Fabrice Murtin, 2014. "Unemployment at risk: the policy determinants of labour market exposure to economic shocks [Labor market institutions and the business cycle: unemployment rigidities vs wage rigidities]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(80), pages 603-637.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecpoli:v:29:y:2014:i:80:p:603-637.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1468-0327.12038
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Garnero, 2021. "The impact of collective bargaining on employment and wage inequality: Evidence from a new taxonomy of bargaining systems," European Journal of Industrial Relations, , vol. 27(2), pages 185-202, June.
    2. Ziaei, Sayyed Mahdi, 2022. "The impacts of household social benefits, public expenditure on labour markets, and household financial assets on the renewable energy sector," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 51-58.
    3. Pankaj C. Patel & Cornelius A. Rietveld, 2023. "Right of association and new business entry: country-level evidence from the market sector," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1161-1177, October.
    4. Goulas, Eleftherios & Zervoyianni, Athina, 2018. "Active labour-market policies and output growth: Is there a causal relationship?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.
    5. Marwa Sahnoun & Chokri Abdennadher, 2018. "The assessment of active labor market policies: evidence from OECD countries," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(2), pages 257-283, August.
    6. Michael MITSOPOULOS & Theodore PELAGIDIS, 2021. "Labor Taxation And Investment In Developed Countries. The Impact On Employment," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 13-31, June.
    7. Chletsos, Michael & Sintos, Andreas, 2023. "The effects of IMF conditional programs on the unemployment rate," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Görg, Holger & Henze, Philipp & Jienwatcharamongkhol, Viroj & Kopasker, Daniel & Molana, Hassan & Montagna, Catia & Sjöholm, Fredrik, 2017. "Firm size distribution and employment fluctuations: Theory and evidence," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(4), pages 690-703.
    9. Roeger, Werner & Varga, Janos & Veld, Jan in 't & Vogel, Lukas, 2021. "The distributional impact of labour market reforms: A model-based assessment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    10. Andrews Dan & Ferrari Irene & Saia Alessandro, 2019. "The Costs of Firm Exit and Labour Market Policies: New Evidence from Europe," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-24, January.
    11. Jennifer Alonso Garcia & Beatriz Rosado-Cebrian, 2019. "Financial crisis and pension reform in Spain: the effect of labour market dynamics," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/294230, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

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