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A New Empirically Weighted Monetary Aggregate for the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Leigh Drake
  • Terence C. Mills

Abstract

This article uses an approach to long-run modeling proposed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001) to develop an empirically weighted broad monetary aggregate for the United States and to demonstrate the advantages of this type of aggregate from a monetary policy perspective. The new empirically weighted aggregate performs well in out-of-sample nominal income and inflation forecasting tests, and in respect of the latter is clearly superior to simple sum M2, Divisia M2, and simple sum M2+ (which includes stock and bond mutual funds) over the period 1991--2001. (JEL E41, E52, E58) Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Leigh Drake & Terence C. Mills, 2005. "A New Empirically Weighted Monetary Aggregate for the United States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 138-157, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:43:y:2005:i:1:p:138-157
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ei/cbi010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Katharina Pistor & Martin Raiser & Stanislaw Gelfer, 2000. "Law and Finance in Transition Economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(2), pages 325-368, July.
    2. Cukierman, Alex & Miller, Geoffrey P. & Neyapti, Bilin, 2002. "Central bank reform, liberalization and inflation in transition economies--an international perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 237-264, March.
    3. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2002. "Does deposit insurance increase banking system stability? An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1373-1406, October.
    4. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 353-398, September.
    5. Neyapti, Bilin, 2001. "Central bank independence and economic performance in eastern Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 381-399, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Binner, Jane M. & Bissoondeeal, Rakesh K. & Elger, C. Thomas & Jones, Barry E. & Mullineux, Andrew W., 2009. "Admissible monetary aggregates for the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 99-114, February.
    2. William A. Barnett & Soumya Suvra Bhadury & Taniya Ghosh, 2016. "An SVAR Approach to Evaluation of Monetary Policy in India: Solution to the Exchange Rate Puzzles in an Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 871-893, November.
    3. Hiew, Lee-Chea & Puah, Chin-Hong & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2013. "The Role of Advertising Expenditure in Measuring Indonesia’s Money Demand Function," MPRA Paper 50223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Rakesh K. Bissoondeeal & Barry E. Jones & Jane M. Binner & Andrew W. Mullineux, 2010. "Household-Sector Money Demand For The Uk," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 90-113, September.
    5. Elger, Thomas & Jones, Barry E. & Nilsson, Birger, 2006. "Forecasting with Monetary Aggregates: Recent Evidence for the United States," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 428-446.
    6. Binner, J.M. & Tino, P. & Tepper, J. & Anderson, R. & Jones, B. & Kendall, G., 2010. "Does money matter in inflation forecasting?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4793-4808.
    7. Shahid IQBAL & Maqbool H. SIAL, 2016. "Projections of Inflation Dynamics for Pakistan: GMDH Approach," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 536-559, September.
    8. Tang, Maggie May-Jean & Puah, Chin-Hong & Awang Marikan, Dayang-Affizzah, 2013. "Empirical Evidence on the Long-Run Neutrality Hypothesis Using Divisia Money," MPRA Paper 50020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Sarwar, haroon & Hussian, zakir & Awan, masood sarwar, 2011. "Money Demand Functions for Pakistan (Divisia Approach)," MPRA Paper 34361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Richard G. Anderson & Barry E. Jones, 2011. "A comprehensive revision of the U.S. monetary services (divisia) indexes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 325-360.
    11. Michael Ellington & Costas Milas, 2014. "Global liquidity, money growth and UK inflation," Working Paper series 21_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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