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Political Risk and Irreversible Investment

Author

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  • Sumru G. Altug
  • Fanny S Demers
  • Michel Demers

Abstract

The objective of this article is two-fold. First, we develop a theoretical model to investigate the impact of political risk on irreversible investment. Second, we apply our model to an analysis of the effects of risk of separation of the province of Quebec from the Canadian federation. We model the probability of a regime switch using the properties of the electoral process and examine the response of investment to changes in the risk of separation. We consider the impact of investors' perception of the risk of separation and financial market volatility separately. We show that political risk has a depressing impact on investment even if the 'bad' regime has never been observed in the sample. (JEL Codes: E22, D92, O16, O11) Copyright , Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Sumru G. Altug & Fanny S Demers & Michel Demers, 2007. "Political Risk and Irreversible Investment," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 53(3), pages 430-465, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:53:y:2007:i:3:p:430-465
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/cesifo/ifm014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marie-Claude Beaulieu & Jean-Claude Cosset & Naceur Essaddam, 2005. "The impact of political risk on the volatility of stock returns: the case of Canada," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 36(6), pages 701-718, November.
    2. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B. & Mehra, Rajnish, 1989. "On some computational aspects of equilibrium business cycle theory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 449-470, July.
    3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marie‐Claude Beaulieu & Jean‐Claude Cosset & Naceur Essaddam, 2006. "Political uncertainty and stock market returns: evidence from the 1995 Quebec referendum," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 621-642, May.
    2. Marvasti, Akbar, 2013. "The role of price expectations and legal uncertainties in ocean mineral, exploration activities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 68-74.
    3. Dearmon, Jacob & Grier, Robin, 2011. "Trust and the accumulation of physical and human capital," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 507-519, September.
    4. Sulehri, Fiaz Ahmad & Ali, Amjad, 2020. "Impact of Political Uncertainty on Pakistan Stock Exchange (1990-1999): An Event Study Approach," MPRA Paper 104623, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Filiztekin, Alpay & Altug, Sumru & Pamuk, Sevket, 2007. "The Sources of Long-term Economic Growth for Turkey, 1880-2005," CEPR Discussion Papers 6463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Amihai Glazer & Stef Proost, 2008. "Signaling Commitment by Excessive Spending," Working Papers 070811, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
    7. Graham, Roger C. & Morrill, Cameron K.J. & Morrill, Janet B., 2012. "Does it matter where assets are held and income is derived? Further evidence of differential value relevance from Quebec," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 185-197.
    8. Wahl, Jack E. & Broll, Udo, 2009. "Mitigation of foreign Direct investment risk and hedging," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 13/09, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    9. Altug, Sumru & Demers, Fanny S. & Demers, Michel, 2009. "The investment tax credit and irreversible investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 509-522, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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