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Race, Income, and College in 25 Years: Evaluating Justice O'Connor's Conjecture

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  • Alan Krueger
  • Jesse Rothstein
  • Sarah Turner

Abstract

In Grutter v. Bollinger, Justice O'Connor conjectured that in 25 years affirmative action in college admissions will be unnecessary. We project the test score distribution of black and white college applicants 25 years from now, focusing on the role of black--white family income gaps. Economic progress alone is unlikely to narrow the achievement gap enough in 25 years to produce today's racial diversity levels with race-blind admissions. A return to the rapid black--white test score convergence of the 1980s could plausibly cause black representation to approach current levels at moderately selective schools, but not at the most selective schools. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan Krueger & Jesse Rothstein & Sarah Turner, 2006. "Race, Income, and College in 25 Years: Evaluating Justice O'Connor's Conjecture," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 8(2), pages 282-311.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:amlawe:v:8:y:2006:i:2:p:282-311
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/aler/ahl004
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    Cited by:

    1. Cullen, Julie Berry & Long, Mark C. & Reback, Randall, 2013. "Jockeying for position: Strategic high school choice under Texas' top ten percent plan," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 32-48.
    2. Dmitri Kuksov, 2024. "Endogenous Inequality in Decentralized Two-Sided Markets," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(6), pages 1299-1316, November.
    3. Betsey Stevenson & Justin Wolfers, 2012. "Subjective and Objective Indicators of Racial Progress," The Journal of Legal Studies, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(2), pages 459-493.
    4. Mark C. Long, 2015. "Is There a “Workable” Race‐Neutral Alternative to Affirmative Action in College Admissions?," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 162-183, January.
    5. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Emmanuel Saez & Nicholas Turner & Danny Yagan, 2020. "The Determinants of Income Segregation and Intergenerational Mobility: Using Test Scores to Measure Undermatching," NBER Working Papers 26748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Pierre-André CHIAPPORI & Sonia OREFFICE & Climent QUINTANA-DOMEQUE, 2016. "Black-White Marital Matching: Race, Anthtopometrics and Socioeconomics," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(4), pages 399-421, December.
    7. Jesse Rothstein & Nathan Wozny, 2013. "Permanent Income and the Black-White Test Score Gap," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 48(3), pages 510-544.
    8. Rothstein, Jesse, 2022. "Qualitative information in undergraduate admissions: A pilot study of letters of recommendation," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    9. Prasad Krishnamurthy & Aaron Edlin, 2014. "Affirmative Action and Stereotypes in Higher Education Admissions," NBER Working Papers 20629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Rodney Andrews & Omari Swinton, 2014. "The Persistent Myths of “Acting White” and Race Neutral Alternatives to Affirmative Action in Admissions," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 357-371, September.
    11. Yagan, Danny, 2016. "Supply vs. demand under an affirmative action ban: Estimates from UC law schools," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 38-50.
    12. Dianat, Ahrash & Echenique, Federico & Yariv, Leeat, 2022. "Statistical discrimination and affirmative action in the lab," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 41-58.

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