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A Century of U.S. Farm Productivity Growth: A Surge Then a Slowdown

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  • Matthew A Andersen
  • Julian M Alston
  • Philip G Pardey
  • Aaron Smith

Abstract

U.S. farm productivity growth has direct consequences for sustainably feeding the world’s still rapidly growing population, as well as U.S. competitiveness in international markets. Using a newly expanded compilation of multifactor productivity (MFP) estimates and associated partial-factor productivity (PFP) measures, we examine changes in the pattern of U.S. agricultural productivity growth over the past century and more. Considering the evidence as a whole, we detect sizable and significant slowdowns in the rate of productivity growth in recent decades. U.S. multifactor productivity grew at an annual average rate of just 1.16% per year during 1990–2007 compared with 1.42% per year for the period 1910–2007. U.S. yields of major crops grew at an annual average rate of 1.17% per year for 1990–2009 compared with 1.81% per year for 1936–1990. More subtly, but with potentially profound implications, the relatively high rates of MFP growth during the third quarter of the century are an historical aberration relative to the long-run trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthew A Andersen & Julian M Alston & Philip G Pardey & Aaron Smith, 2018. "A Century of U.S. Farm Productivity Growth: A Surge Then a Slowdown," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1072-1090.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:100:y:2018:i:4:p:1072-1090.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ajae/aay023
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tsionas, Mike G. & Malikov, Emir & Kumbhakar, Subal C., 2020. "Endogenous dynamic efficiency in the intertemporal optimization models of firm behavior," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(1), pages 313-324.
    2. Robert G. Chambers & Yu Sheng, "undated". "Genetically Modified Organisms and Agricultural Productivity," Working Papers 3, International Society for Efficiency and Productivity Analysis.
    3. Chai, Yuan & Pardey, Philip G. & Chan-Kang, Connie & Huang, Jikun & Lee, Kyuseon & Dong, Wanlu, 2019. "Passing the food and agricultural R&D buck? The United States and China," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Shon Ferguson & David Ubilava, 2022. "Global commodity market disruption and the fallout," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(4), pages 737-752, October.
    5. Alston, Julian M. & Pardey, Philip G., 2022. "Are Ideas Really Getting Harder to Find?," Staff Papers 320517, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    6. Trindade, Federico J. & Fulginiti, Lilyan E. & Perrin, Richard K., 2020. "A half century of yield growth along the forty-first parallel of the Great Plains: factor intensification, irrigation, weather, and technical change," Staff Papers 305568, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    7. Yu, Chengzheng & Miao, Ruiqing & Khanna, Madhu, 2021. "Maladaptation of U.S. Corn and Soybean to a Changing Climate," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 313798, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Yu Sheng & V. Eldon Ball & Kenneth Erickson & Carlos San Juan Mesonada, 2022. "Cross-country agricultural TFP convergence and capital deepening: evidence for induced innovation from 17 OECD countries," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 185-202, December.
    9. Getu Hailu, 2023. "Reflections on technological progress in the agri‐food industry: Past, present, and future," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 71(1), pages 119-141, March.
    10. Konstantinos Metaxoglou & Aaron Smith, 2020. "Productivity Spillovers From Pollution Reduction: Reducing Coal Use Increases Crop Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(1), pages 259-280, January.
    11. Yu, Chengzheng & Miao, Ruiqing & Khanna, Madhu, 2021. "Maladaptation of U.S. Corn and Soybean Yields to a Changing Climate," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315037, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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