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Unpacking the Agricultural Black Box: The Rise and Fall of American Farm Productivity Growth

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  • Pardey, Philip G.
  • Alston, Julian M.

Abstract

Has the golden age of U.S. agricultural productivity growth ended? We analyze the detailed patterns of productivity growth spanning a century of profound changes in American agriculture. We document a substantial slowing of U.S. farm productivity growth, following a late mid-century surge—20 years after the surge and slowdown in U.S. industrial productivity growth. We posit and empirically probe three related explanations for this farm productivity surge-slowdown: the time path of agricultural R&D-driven knowledge stocks; a big wave of technological progress associated with great clusters of inventions; and dynamic aspects of the structural transformation of agriculture, largely completed by 1980.

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  • Pardey, Philip G. & Alston, Julian M., 2021. "Unpacking the Agricultural Black Box: The Rise and Fall of American Farm Productivity Growth," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(1), pages 114-155, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:81:y:2021:i:1:p:114-155_4
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    Cited by:

    1. Merel, Pierre & Qin, Zhiran & Sexton, Richard J., 2023. "Policy-Induced Expansion of Organic Farmland: Implications for Food Prices and Welfare," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335587, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Kharel, S. & d'Abbadie, C. & Abadi, A. & Kingwell, R., 2022. "Reducing farming system emissions via spatial application of payoff functions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    3. Yu Sheng & V. Eldon Ball & Kenneth Erickson & Carlos San Juan Mesonada, 2022. "Cross-country agricultural TFP convergence and capital deepening: evidence for induced innovation from 17 OECD countries," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 185-202, December.
    4. Getu Hailu, 2023. "Reflections on technological progress in the agri‐food industry: Past, present, and future," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 71(1), pages 119-141, March.

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