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The future of health and long-term care spending

Author

Listed:
  • Christine de la Maisonneuve
  • Joaquim Oliveira Martins

Abstract

This paper proposes a new set of public health and long-term care expenditure projections until 2060, following up on the previous set of projections published in 2006. It disentangles health from long-term care expenditure as well as the demographic from the non-demographic drivers, and refines the previous methodology, in particular by better identifying the underlying determinants of health and long-term care spending and by extending the country coverage to include BRIICS countries. A cost-containment and a cost-pressure scenario are provided together with sensitivity analysis. On average across OECD countries, total health and long-term care expenditure is projected to increase by 3.3 and 7.7 percentage points of GDP between 2010 and 2060 in the cost-containment and the cost-pressure scenarios, respectively. For the BRIICS over the same period, it is projected to increase by 2.8 and 7.3 percentage points of GDP in the costcontainment and the cost-pressure scenarios, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Christine de la Maisonneuve & Joaquim Oliveira Martins, 2014. "The future of health and long-term care spending," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2014(1), pages 61-96.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecokac:5jz0v44s66nw
    DOI: 10.1787/eco_studies-2014-5jz0v44s66nw
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    Cited by:

    1. Rotteveel, Adriënne H. & Lambooij, Mattijs S. & van Exel, Job & de Wit, G. Ardine, 2022. "To what extent do citizens support the disinvestment of healthcare interventions? An exploration of the support for four viewpoints on active disinvestment in the Netherlands," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    2. Ozbugday, Fatih Cemil & Tirgil, Abdullah & Kose, Elif Gul, 2020. "Efficiency changes in long-term care in OECD countries: A non-parametric Malmquist Index approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    3. Boris Cournède & Jean-Marc Fournier & Peter Hoeller, 2018. "Public finance structure and inclusive growth," OECD Economic Policy Papers 25, OECD Publishing.
    4. Martin Eling & Omid Ghavibazoo, 2019. "Research on long-term care insurance: status quo and directions for future research," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(2), pages 303-356, April.
    5. Guogui Huang & Fei Guo & Gong Chen, 2022. "The Role and Wellbeing of Female Family Caregivers in the Provision of Aged Care in China," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 159(2), pages 707-731, January.
    6. Braendle, Thomas & Colombier, Carsten, 2017. "Healthcare expenditure projections up to 2045," MPRA Paper 104737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Torben M. Andersen & Giuseppe Bertola & John Driffill & Harold James & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Branko Uroševic, 2016. "Chapter 2: Intergenerational Fairness," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 54-69, February.
    8. Stöckel, Jannis & Bom, Judith, 2022. "Revisiting longer-term health effects of informal caregiving: Evidence from the UK," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    9. Kostroma Ya. V., 2021. "Cost management for various diagnostic schemes for cervicitis and chronic endometritis," Russian Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, Omsk Humanitarian Academy, vol. 15(3), pages 207-215, September.
    10. Jarmila Botev & Jean-Marc Fournier & Annabelle Mourougane, 2016. "A Re-assessment of Fiscal Space in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1352, OECD Publishing.
    11. Jürgen Schmude & Markus Pillmayer & Maximilian Witting & Philipp Corradini, 2021. "Geography Matters, But… Evolving Success Factors for Nature-Oriented Health Tourism within Selected Alpine Destinations," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(10), pages 1-18, May.
    12. Kaan Celebi & Jochen Hartwig & Anna Pauliina Sandqvist, 2024. "Baumol's Cost Disease in Acute vs. Long-term Care - Do the Differences Loom Large?," Chemnitz Economic Papers 062, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology.
    13. Rotteveel, A.H. & Reckers-Droog, V.T. & Lambooij, M.S. & de Wit, G.A. & van Exel, N.J.A., 2021. "Societal views in the Netherlands on active disinvestment of publicly funded healthcare interventions," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    14. Walsh, Brendan & Keegan, Conor & Brick, Aoife & Connolly, Sheelah & Bergin, Adele & Wren, Maev-Ann & Lyons, Seán & Hill, Leonie & Smith, Samantha, 2021. "Projections of expenditure for primary, community and long-term care Ireland, 2019–2035, based on the Hippocrates model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS126, June.
    15. Keegan, Conor & Brick, Aoife & Bergin, Adele & Wren, Maev-Ann & Whyte, Richard & Henry, Edward, 2020. "Projections of expenditure for public hospitals in Ireland, 2018–2035, based on the Hippocrates Model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS117, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public health expenditures; long-term care expenditures; ageing populations; longevity; demographic and non-demographic effects; projection methods.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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