IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nrb/journl/v21y2009p5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-run Relationships of Macroeconomic Variables in Nepal: A VAR Approach

Author

Listed:
  • T. P. Koirala, Ph.D.

    (Nepal Rastra Bank)

Abstract

This paper utilizes cointegration procedure of Johansen and Juselius (1990) in estimating the long run economic relationships of macroeconomic variables comprising M2 monetary aggregate, Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Interest Rate (RT) using annual data ranging from 1975 to 2006. Since one cointegrating vector is found to be statistically significant among the variables under consideration, the result is tantamount to deducing the coefficients of Error Correction Model (ECM). In an application of the Augmented Dickey and Fuller (ADF) test to examine the presence of unit roots in the variables prior to the variables used in estimating long run relationships, the ADF sequential search procedure supports an existence of unit roots in all the variables. This paper also estimates the demand for money function in Nepal as an application of long run relationships between the variables using the said procedure. The coefficients of income and interest rate elasticity of M1 so estimated as depicted by the normalized cointegrating vector are in line with theoretical underpinning. Since the coefficients estimated in this paper rely on restricted VAR method that are contrary to the past practices in estimating cointegrating vector using the Engle-Granger (1987) two-step procedure in Nepal, the coefficients are supposed to be robust and consistent owing to the stronger restrictions imposed by cointegrating vector as against the a theoretical VAR approach.

Suggested Citation

  • T. P. Koirala, Ph.D., 2009. "Long-run Relationships of Macroeconomic Variables in Nepal: A VAR Approach," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 21, pages 1-5, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nrb:journl:v:21:y:2009:p:5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nrb.org.np/contents/uploads/2021/09/vol21_art5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. Hendry,David F. & Morgan,Mary S., 1997. "The Foundations of Econometric Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521588706.
    5. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    6. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    7. Yuba Raj Khatiwada Ph. D., 1997. "Estimating the Demand for Money in Nepal: Some Empirical Issues," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 9, pages 1-43, April.
    8. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Alok Bhargava, 1986. "On the Theory of Testing for Unit Roots in Observed Time Series," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(3), pages 369-384.
    10. Andreas Beyer, 1998. "Modelling money demand in Germany," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 57-76.
    11. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    12. David A. Dickey & Dennis W. Jansen & Daniel L. Thornton, 1994. "A Primer on Cointegration with an Application to Money and Income," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: B. Bhaskara Rao (ed.), Cointegration, chapter 2, pages 9-45, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1973. "The Demand for Money Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(3), pages 577-646.
    14. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, March.
    15. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. T. P. Koirala Ph.D., 2009. "Long-run Relationships of Macroeconomic Variables in Nepal: A VAR Approach," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 21, pages 99-120, April.
    2. Mcgibany, James M. & Nourzad, Farrokh, 1995. "Exchange rate volatility and the demand for money in the U.S," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 411-425.
    3. Richard Palmer‐Jones & Ashok Parikh, 1998. "The Determination of Agricultural Wage Rates in Bangladesh," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 111-133, March.
    4. Stefka Slavova, 2003. "Money demand during hyperinflation and stabilization: Bulgaria, 1991-2000," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(11), pages 1303-1316.
    5. Isabel Cortés-Jiménez & Manuel Artís, 2005. "The role of the tourism sector in economic development - Lessons from the Spanish experience," ERSA conference papers ersa05p488, European Regional Science Association.
    6. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    7. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    8. PHILIP E.T. LEWIS & GARRY A. MacDONALD, 1993. "Testing for Equilibrium in the Australian Wage Equation," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(3), pages 295-304, September.
    9. Abdul Qayyum, 2000. "Demand for Real Money Balances by the Business Sector: An Econometric Investigation," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 39(4), pages 857-873.
    10. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2005:i:19:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Alexander Schätz, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects on Emerging Market Sector Indices," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 9(2), pages 131-169, August.
    13. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Cointegration, exogeneity, and policy analysis: An overview," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 251-280, June.
    14. Chee-Keong Choong & Wai-Ching Poon & Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Zulkornain Yusop, 2003. "The Validity of PPP Theory in ASEAN-Five: Another Look on Cointegration and Panel Data Analysis," International Trade 0309018, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Martins Iyoboyi, 2013. "Bank and Non-Bank Financial Deepening and Economic Growth: The Nigerian Experience (1981–2010)," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 42(3), pages 247-272, November.
    16. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5, July-Dece.
    17. E. Schirru, 1996. "Modelli di determinazione del tasso di cambio: un'analisi di cointegrazione," Working Paper CRENoS 199610, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    18. Dilip Dutta & Nasiruddin Ahmed, 2004. "An aggregate import demand function for India: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(10), pages 607-613.
    19. Francisco de Castro & José M. González-Páramo & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2001. "Evaluating the dynamics of fiscal policy in Spain: patterns of interdependence and consistency of public expenditure and revenues," Working Papers 0103, Banco de España.
    20. Otero-Giráldez, María Soledad & Álvarez-Díaz, Marcos & González-Gómez, Manuel, 2012. "Estimating the long-run effects of socioeconomic and meteorological factors on the domestic tourism demand for Galicia (Spain)," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1301-1308.
    21. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2002. "Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race? Some further empirical results from causality tests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 321-328.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nrb:journl:v:21:y:2009:p:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Publication Division NRB (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nrbgvnp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.