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Do Parties Matter for Ethnic Violence? Evidence From India

Author

Listed:
  • Nellis, Gareth
  • Weaver, Michael
  • Rosenzweig, Steven C.

Abstract

Ethnic group conflict is among the most serious threats facing young democracies. In this paper, we investigate whether the partisanship of incumbent politicians affects the incidence and severity of local ethnic violence. Using a novel application of the regression-discontinuity design, we show that as-if random victory by candidates representing India's Congress party in close state assembly elections between 1962 and 2000 reduced Hindu–Muslim rioting. The effects are large. Simulations reveal that had Congress lost all close elections in this period, India would have experienced 11 percent more riots. Additional analyses suggest that Congress candidates' dependence on local Muslim votes, as well as apprehensions about religious polarization of the electorate in the event of riots breaking out, are what drive the observed effect. Our findings shed new light on parties' connection to ethnic conflict, the relevance of partisanship in developing states, and the puzzle of democratic consolidation in ethnically divided societies.

Suggested Citation

  • Nellis, Gareth & Weaver, Michael & Rosenzweig, Steven C., 2016. "Do Parties Matter for Ethnic Violence? Evidence From India," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 11(3), pages 249-277, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:now:jlqjps:100.00015051
    DOI: 10.1561/100.00015051
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    Cited by:

    1. Kikuta,Kyosuke, 2023. "More Equality for Women Does Mean Less War: Descriptive Representation, Legislative Votes, and International Conflict," IDE Discussion Papers 904, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    2. Ursula Daxecker, 2020. "Unequal votes, unequal violence: Malapportionment and election violence in India," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(1), pages 156-170, January.
    3. Prakash, Nishith & Sahoo, Soham & Saraswat, Deepak & Sindhi, Reetika, 2022. "When Criminality Begets Crime: The Role of Elected Politicians in India," IZA Discussion Papers 15259, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Bhalotra, Sonia & Clots-Figueras, Irma & Iyer, Lakshmi, 2021. "Religion and abortion: The role of politician identity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    5. Sarah Birch & Ursula Daxecker & Kristine Höglund, 2020. "Electoral violence: An introduction," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(1), pages 3-14, January.
    6. H Zeynep Bulutgil & Neeraj Prasad, 2023. "Inequality, elections, and communal riots in India," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(4), pages 619-633, July.
    7. Deniz Aksoy & David Carlson, 2022. "Electoral support and militants’ targeting strategies," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 229-241, March.
    8. Mahadevan, Meera & Shenoy, Ajay, 2023. "The political consequences of resource scarcity: Targeted spending in a water-stressed democracy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    9. Makarin, Alexey & Piqué, Ricardo & Aragón, Fernando, 2020. "National or sub-national parties: Does party geographic scope matter?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    10. Khanna, Gaurav & Mukherjee, Priya, 2023. "Political accountability for populist policies: Lessons from the world’s largest democracy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).

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