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Four Years After the Base-Year Revision: Taking Stock of the Debate Surrounding India’s National Accounts Estimates

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Listed:
  • Nagaraj, R.
  • Sapre, Amey
  • Sengupta, Rajeswari

Abstract

In 2015, with the release of the 2011–12 base-year GDP series, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) substantially revised the way GDP is calculated in India. According to the new series, India is the fastest growing large economy in the world. However, other trusted measures of the state of the economy convey a discordant picture. This discrepancy has led to an active debate over the last few years. Numerous studies by academic scholars have identified, analyzed, and documented the problems with the kind of data used in the new series as well as with the specific methodologies applied. The criticisms have cast persistent doubts on the new GDP series and have dented the credibility of India’s National Accounts Statistics. The debate seems at an impasse. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive summary of the issues surrounding the new GDP series as highlighted by academic experts and outline recommendations for a possible way forward to resolve India’s GDP data crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Nagaraj, R. & Sapre, Amey & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2020. "Four Years After the Base-Year Revision: Taking Stock of the Debate Surrounding India’s National Accounts Estimates," India Policy Forum, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 55-107.
    • Handle: RePEc:nca:ncaerj:v:16:y:2020:i:2020-1:p:55-107
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    File URL: https://www.ncaer.org/publication/india-policy-forum-2019
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Radhika Pandey & Amey Sapre & Pramod Sinha, 2020. "What Do We Know About Changing Economic Activity of Firms?," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 8(2), pages 149-169, December.
    2. Sapre, Amey & Sinha, Pramod, 2016. "Some areas of concern about Indian Manufacturing Sector GDP estimation," Working Papers 16/172, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP Measurement; National Accounts Statistics; National Income; Manufacturing; Gross Value Added; Base-Year Revision;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian

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