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Flickering gives early warning signals of a critical transition to a eutrophic lake state

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  • Rong Wang

    (Palaeoecological Laboratory, Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
    State Key Laboratory of Lake Science & Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography & Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China)

  • John A. Dearing

    (Palaeoecological Laboratory, Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK)

  • Peter G. Langdon

    (Palaeoecological Laboratory, Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK)

  • Enlou Zhang

    (State Key Laboratory of Lake Science & Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography & Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China)

  • Xiangdong Yang

    (State Key Laboratory of Lake Science & Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography & Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China)

  • Vasilis Dakos

    (Wageningen University, PO Box 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
    Integrative Ecology Group, Estación Biológica de Doñana, CSIC, C/Américo Vespucio S/N, E-41092 Seville, Spain)

  • Marten Scheffer

    (Wageningen University, PO Box 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands)

Abstract

Critical transitions in experimental and theoretical systems can be anticipated on the basis of specific warning signs, with ‘critical slowing down’ being the best studied; long-term data from a real system, a Chinese lake, now show that a flickering phenomenon can be observed up to 20 years before the critical transition to a eutrophic state.

Suggested Citation

  • Rong Wang & John A. Dearing & Peter G. Langdon & Enlou Zhang & Xiangdong Yang & Vasilis Dakos & Marten Scheffer, 2012. "Flickering gives early warning signals of a critical transition to a eutrophic lake state," Nature, Nature, vol. 492(7429), pages 419-422, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:492:y:2012:i:7429:d:10.1038_nature11655
    DOI: 10.1038/nature11655
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas M. Bury & Daniel Dylewsky & Chris T. Bauch & Madhur Anand & Leon Glass & Alvin Shrier & Gil Bub, 2023. "Predicting discrete-time bifurcations with deep learning," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Dmitry Gromov & Thorsten Upmann, 2021. "Dynamics and Economics of Shallow Lakes: A Survey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Roland Clift & Sarah Sim & Henry King & Jonathan L. Chenoweth & Ian Christie & Julie Clavreul & Carina Mueller & Leo Posthuma & Anne-Marie Boulay & Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer & Julia Chatterton & Fabrice , 2017. "The Challenges of Applying Planetary Boundaries as a Basis for Strategic Decision-Making in Companies with Global Supply Chains," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-23, February.
    4. James Tan & Siew Ann Cheong, 2016. "The Regime Shift Associated with the 2004–2008 US Housing Market Bubble," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(9), pages 1-8, September.
    5. Simon DeDeo, 2016. "Conflict and Computation on Wikipedia: A Finite-State Machine Analysis of Editor Interactions," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-23, July.
    6. Juan Miguel Rodriguez Lopez & Katja Tielbörger & Cornelia Claus & Christiane Fröhlich & Marc Gramberger & Jürgen Scheffran, 2019. "A Transdisciplinary Approach to Identifying Transboundary Tipping Points in a Contentious Area: Experiences from across the Jordan River Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-20, February.
    7. Andrew R. Tilman & Elisabeth H. Krueger & Lisa C. McManus & James R. Watson, 2023. "Maintaining human wellbeing as socio-environmental systems undergo regime shifts," Papers 2309.04578, arXiv.org.
    8. Christian Meisel & Andreas Klaus & Christian Kuehn & Dietmar Plenz, 2015. "Critical Slowing Down Governs the Transition to Neuron Spiking," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(2), pages 1-20, February.
    9. Manfred Füllsack & Daniel Reisinger, 2021. "Transition prediction in the Ising-model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-14, November.
    10. Simon Willcock & Gregory S. Cooper & John Addy & John A. Dearing, 2023. "Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 1331-1342, November.
    11. Odirilwe Selomane & Belinda Reyers & Reinette Biggs & Maike Hamann, 2019. "Harnessing Insights from Social-Ecological Systems Research for Monitoring Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-36, February.
    12. Paul Hutchings & Simon Willcock & Kenneth Lynch & Dilshaad Bundhoo & Tim Brewer & Sarah Cooper & Daniel Keech & Sneha Mekala & Prajna Paramita Mishra & Alison Parker & Charlie M. Shackleton & Kongala , 2022. "Understanding rural–urban transitions in the Global South through peri-urban turbulence," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(11), pages 924-930, November.
    13. Woi Sok Oh & à lvaro Carmona-Cabrero & Rafael Muñoz-Carpena & Rachata Muneepeerakul, 2022. "On the Interplay Among Multiple Factors: Effects of Factor Configuration in a Proof-Of-Concept Migration Agent-Based Model," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 25(2), pages 1-7.
    14. Abram, Joseph J. & Dyke, James G., 2018. "Structural Loop Analysis of Complex Ecological Systems," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 333-342.
    15. Manfred Füllsack & Daniel Reisinger & Marie Kapeller & Georg Jäger, 2022. "Early warning signals from the periphery," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 665-685, May.

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